MX23RW : Tuesday, January 21 18:10:41| >> :60:972:972:
Netherlands national football team
Friendlies 1
Jun 10, 2024 at 7.45pm UK
Stadion Feijenoord
Iceland national football team

Netherlands
4 - 0
Iceland

Simons (23'), van Dijk (49'), Malen (79'), Weghorst (90+3')
FT(HT: 1-0)

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Monday's friendly clash between Netherlands and Iceland, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Netherlands

All competitions
International Friendlies
Last Game: Netherlands 4-0 Canada
Thursday, June 6 at 7.45pm in International Friendlies

Iceland

All competitions
International Friendlies
Last Game: England 0-1 Iceland
Friday, June 7 at 7.45pm in International Friendlies

We said: Netherlands 2-1 Iceland

 Iceland put a lot into their friendly with England, and it would therefore not be a surprise to see a drop-off in performance here. Netherlands will be determined to enter Euro 2024 off the back of a win, meanwhile, and we can see the home side navigating their way to a narrow success on Monday night. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Netherlands win with a probability of 67.14%. A draw had a probability of 19.4% and a win for Iceland had a probability of 13.45%.

The most likely scoreline for a Netherlands win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.84%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (11.21%) and 2-1 (9.75%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.23%), while for a Iceland win it was 0-1 (4.37%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 4.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Netherlands would win this match.

Result
NetherlandsDrawIceland
67.14% (0.828 0.83) 19.41% (-0.2 -0.2) 13.45% (-0.627 -0.63)
Both teams to score 49.32% (-1.061 -1.06)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
56.24% (-0.518 -0.52)43.75% (0.518 0.52)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
33.85% (-0.51 -0.51)66.14% (0.51000000000001 0.51)
Netherlands Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
87.92% (0.076999999999998 0.08)12.08% (-0.077 -0.08)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
62.38% (0.164 0.16)37.61% (-0.163 -0.16)
Iceland Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
56.09% (-1.257 -1.26)43.91% (1.258 1.26)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
19.95% (-1.054 -1.05)80.05% (1.052 1.05)
Score Analysis
    Netherlands 67.13%
    Iceland 13.45%
    Draw 19.41%
NetherlandsDrawIceland
2-0 @ 11.84% (0.33 0.33)
1-0 @ 11.21% (0.29 0.29)
2-1 @ 9.75% (-0.058 -0.06)
3-0 @ 8.35% (0.261 0.26)
3-1 @ 6.87% (-0.021 -0.02)
4-0 @ 4.41% (0.15 0.15)
4-1 @ 3.63%
3-2 @ 2.83% (-0.109 -0.11)
5-0 @ 1.86% (0.069 0.07)
5-1 @ 1.54% (0.0049999999999999 0)
4-2 @ 1.49% (-0.053 -0.05)
Other @ 3.35%
Total : 67.13%
1-1 @ 9.23% (-0.083 -0.08)
0-0 @ 5.3% (0.119 0.12)
2-2 @ 4.01% (-0.167 -0.17)
Other @ 0.87%
Total : 19.41%
0-1 @ 4.37% (-0.053 -0.05)
1-2 @ 3.8% (-0.169 -0.17)
0-2 @ 1.8% (-0.086 -0.09)
2-3 @ 1.1% (-0.086 -0.09)
1-3 @ 1.04% (-0.085 -0.09)
Other @ 1.35%
Total : 13.45%

How you voted: Netherlands vs Iceland

Netherlands
75.6%
Draw
14.3%
Iceland
10.1%
119
Head to Head
Sep 3, 2015 7.45pm
Qualifiers
Netherlands
0-1
Iceland
> Match Report
Oct 13, 2014 7.45pm
Qualifiers
Iceland
2-0
Netherlands
Sigurdsson (10' pen., 42')

de Jong (83')
> Match Report
rhs 2.0
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