Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Vitoria de Guimaraes win with a probability of 53.25%. A draw had a probability of 25.4% and a win for Casa Pia had a probability of 21.36%.
The most likely scoreline for a Vitoria de Guimaraes win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.43%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (10.52%) and 1-2 (9.36%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.95%), while for a Casa Pia win it was 1-0 (7.63%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 12% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a draw in this match.
Result | ||
Casa Pia | Draw | Vitoria de Guimaraes |
21.36% ( 0.84) | 25.39% ( 0.26) | 53.25% ( -1.1) |
Both teams to score 46.62% ( 0.38) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
44.5% ( -0.09) | 55.5% ( 0.09) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
23.32% ( -0.07) | 76.68% ( 0.07) |
Casa Pia Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
58.91% ( 0.84) | 41.09% ( -0.83) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
22.37% ( 0.73) | 77.63% ( -0.73) |
Vitoria de Guimaraes Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
79.13% ( -0.48) | 20.87% ( 0.48) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
46.44% ( -0.76) | 53.56% ( 0.76) |
Score Analysis |
Casa Pia | Draw | Vitoria de Guimaraes |
1-0 @ 7.63% ( 0.2) 2-1 @ 5.31% ( 0.18) 2-0 @ 3.39% ( 0.16) 3-1 @ 1.58% ( 0.09) 3-2 @ 1.24% ( 0.05) 3-0 @ 1.01% ( 0.07) Other @ 1.21% Total : 21.36% | 1-1 @ 11.95% ( 0.14) 0-0 @ 8.57% ( 0.03) 2-2 @ 4.16% ( 0.08) Other @ 0.7% Total : 25.39% | 0-1 @ 13.43% ( -0.15) 0-2 @ 10.52% ( -0.28) 1-2 @ 9.36% ( -0.03) 0-3 @ 5.5% ( -0.23) 1-3 @ 4.89% ( -0.09) 2-3 @ 2.18% ( 0.01) 0-4 @ 2.15% ( -0.12) 1-4 @ 1.92% ( -0.07) Other @ 3.29% Total : 53.24% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Sporting Lisbon | 19 | 15 | 2 | 2 | 53 | 14 | 39 | 47 |
2 | Benfica | 19 | 13 | 2 | 4 | 43 | 14 | 29 | 41 |
3 | Porto | 19 | 13 | 2 | 4 | 42 | 15 | 27 | 41 |
4 | Braga | 19 | 11 | 4 | 4 | 34 | 19 | 15 | 37 |
5 | Santa ClaraSanta Clara | 20 | 11 | 2 | 7 | 23 | 21 | 2 | 35 |
6 | Casa Pia | 20 | 8 | 6 | 6 | 26 | 25 | 1 | 30 |
7 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 20 | 7 | 8 | 5 | 30 | 25 | 5 | 29 |
8 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 20 | 7 | 6 | 7 | 24 | 31 | -7 | 27 |
9 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 20 | 5 | 9 | 6 | 22 | 24 | -2 | 24 |
10 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 19 | 6 | 5 | 8 | 22 | 26 | -4 | 23 |
11 | Rio AveRio Ave | 19 | 6 | 5 | 8 | 20 | 32 | -12 | 23 |
12 | Gil Vicente | 20 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 23 | 30 | -7 | 22 |
13 | AroucaArouca | 20 | 6 | 4 | 10 | 18 | 31 | -13 | 22 |
14 | Nacional | 20 | 5 | 4 | 11 | 17 | 28 | -11 | 19 |
15 | AVS | 20 | 3 | 9 | 8 | 15 | 29 | -14 | 18 |
16 | Estrela Amadora | 19 | 4 | 5 | 10 | 16 | 30 | -14 | 17 |
17 | SC FarenseFarense | 19 | 3 | 6 | 10 | 12 | 25 | -13 | 15 |
18 | BoavistaBoavista | 20 | 2 | 6 | 12 | 13 | 34 | -21 | 12 |
> Primeira Liga Full Table |