Schalke 04 entertain Wolfsburg in the Bundesliga on Saturday, with the hosts looking to move out of the relegation zone.
The visitors, meanwhile, are one of only two remaining unbeaten sides in the German top flight, winning last time out to move up to sixth in the table.
Match preview
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Schalke were perhaps relieved to walk away from their crucial bottom of the table clash at Mainz 05 with a point prior to the international break, having twice trailed in the game.
Indeed, Manuel Baum's side conceded their fifth and sixth penalties of the season, with former Manchester City defender Matija Nastasic getting them off to a terrible start by standing on Jonathan Burkhardt's Achilles tendon in the penalty area. Daniel Brosinski duly dispatched the penalty, before Mark Uth restored parity in the game with an audacious free kick from the edge of the area which sailed into the top right corner.
However, Ozan Kabak was equally clumsy in giving away another penalty - his third conceded in three consecutive matches - after running into Jean-Philippe Mateta's path on the stroke of half time. The Mainz forward confidently scored the penalty to leave Schalke trailing heading into the interval, with Kabak looking like he had redeemed himself early in the second half when tapping into an empty net from a corner, but he was adjudged to have handled the ball.
Schalke avoided defeat - and consequently dropping to the bottom of the table - when Jeremiah St Juste inadvertently turned the ball into his own net from Steven Skrzybski's cross. Still awaiting their first league win of the season, Baum's side must kick on soon if they are to avoid being mired in a relegation battle all season long.
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Wolfsburg went into their last match against Hoffenheim with one win and five draws from their first six matches, so while remaining unbeaten was impressive, a win was very much required to get their season moving on a more upwards trajectory.
In truth, they were simultaneously deserved and fortunate victors in the 2-1 win. Swiss midfielder Renato Steffen was in superb form, continually making third man runs from midfield in behind a helpless Hoffenheim defence, with him calmly slotting the ball past Oliver Baumann to open the scoring. Steffen was at the heart of Wolfsburg doubling their lead, as another well-timed run led to his shot being saved, with the ball returning kindly to him as he teed up Wout Weghorst for the Dutch striker's sixth goal in five games against Sebastian Hoeness's side.
However, Weghorst's missed penalty in the 84th minute breathed new life into the visitors, who had only recorded their first shot on target in the match ten minutes prior. Sargis Adamyan set up a nervy finish when he fired into the roof of the net three minutes later, before Baumann caused chaos in the Wolfsburg penalty area after venturing up for an injury-time corner. It looked as though the goalkeeper had headed over at the near post, but replays showed a flailing Wolfsburg arm making contact with the ball and a penalty was correctly awarded.
It looked like being yet another draw for Oliver Glasner's side, but Koen Casteels made a superb save down to his right to deny Munas Dabbur and his former club a share of the points. Glasner will be hoping his side can use the dramatic victory as a platform to kick on in the coming weeks.
Schalke 04 Bundesliga form: LLDLDD
Schalke 04 form (all competitions): LDLDWD
Wolfsburg Bundesliga form: DDDWDW
Wolfsburg form (all competitions): LDDWDW
Team News
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Midfielder Alessandro Schopf suffered a calf injury in the draw against Mainz, while Baum remains without Suat Serdar due to a hamstring injury.
Otherwise the Schalke boss appears to have a clean bill of health, with summer signing Vedad Ibisevic vying for a return to the first XI.
Glasner is still without midfielder Joshua Guilavogui due to a torn muscle, with striker Daniel Ginczek doubtful due to back trouble.
The 46-year-old may be tempted to hand Admir Mehmedi a start given Schalke's defensive issues this season.
Schalke 04 possible starting lineup:
Ronnow; Kabak, Sane, Nastasic; Ludewig, Oczipka, Mascareli, Harit, Skrzybski; Uth, Pacienca
Wolfsburg possible starting lineup:
Casteels; Baku, Lacroix, Brooks, Roussillon; Schlager, Arnold; Mehmedi, Steffen, Brekalo; Weghorst
We say: Schalke 04 1-2 Wolfsburg
Schalke's results have improved of late, with three draws in their last four matches, so with Wolfsburg's propensity to tie games it would be little surprise to see another stalemate.
However, we think Wolfsburg can build on the dramatic victory over Hoffenheim and, if everything clicks as it did at times during that win, they could have a little too much for their opposition.
Top betting tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Wolfsburg win with a probability of 52.12%. A win for Schalke 04 had a probability of 24.57% and a draw had a probability of 23.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Wolfsburg win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.73%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (9.49%) and 0-2 (8.45%). The likeliest Schalke 04 win was 2-1 (6.29%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.92%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with an 8.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Wolfsburg would win this match.
