It is a bottom-of-the-table clash in round 25 of the Portuguese Primeira Liga as Tondela and Belenenses go head to head at the Estadio Joao Cardoso on Monday.
The CTD Auriverdes head into the game fresh off the back of an emphatic Taca de Portugal first-leg win over Mafra, while the visitors will be looking to snap their two-game losing streak.
Match preview
© Reuters
Tondela are now 90 minutes away from a place in the final of the Taca de Portugal after securing a comfortable 3-0 victory over Segunda Liga side Mafra in the first leg of their semi-final clash last Thursday.
In a one-sided affair, Tiago Dantas broke deadlock in the 38th minute to put the hosts in front heading into the half-time break before Manu and Neto Borges scored second-half goals to cap off a sensational team performance.
However, Pako Ayestaran's men now turn their sights to the Primeira Liga where they are currently on a run of four consecutive defeats, while managing just two wins from their last nine outings since the turn of the year.
This poor run has been owing to their struggles at the defensive end of the pitch where they failed to keep a clean sheet in any of their last 16 games, conceding 31 goals since a 2-0 win over Belenenses in October's reverse fixture.
With 20 points from 24 games, Tondela are currently bottom but one in the Primeira Liga standings, level on points with Moreirense in the relegation playoff spot and five points above Monday's visitors, who are rooted to the bottom of the pile.
© Reuters
Belenenses, on the other hand, failed to return to winning ways last time out when they fell to a 2-0 defeat at the hands of Pacos de Ferreira on home turf.
In an end-to-end affair at the Estadio Nacional do Jamor, Denilson and Helder Ferreira scored in either half to hand the visitors a second consecutive league victory for the first time since last December.
Prior to that, Franclim Carvalho's side saw their five-game winless run come to an end courtesy of a 1-0 win over Vitoria de Guimaraes on February 13 before crashing back down to earth in a 2-0 loss at Gil Vicente six days later.
While Belenenses will be seeking to end this dry spell, they have struggled to get going on the road, where they are yet to taste victory and currently boast the division's poorest record with just four points from 12 away matches.
However, they will fancy their chances of coming away with the desired result as they take on Tondela at the Estadio Joao Cardoso, where they have won each of their most recent three visits since a 2-0 loss back in 2017.
- L
- W
- L
- L
- L
- L
- W
- L
- L
- L
- L
- W
- D
- L
- L
- W
- L
- L
Team News
© Reuters
Following a comfortable victory over Mafra last time out, Ayestaran could name a similar side on Monday, meaning we could see Daniel dos Anjos and Rafael Barbosa spearheading the attack once again.
In midfield, Borges, Dantas, Pedro Augusto, Sessi D'Almeida and Bebeto should line up in front of a back three of Manu, Eduardo Quaresma, Ricardo Alves.
On the injury front, Tondela will be without the services of Jota Goncalves and Simone Muratore, who are recuperating from knee and muscle injuries respectively.
Belenenses, on the other hand, will have to cope with the absence of Nilton Varela after the 20-year-old defender came off injured against Sporting Lisbon on February 2.
Carvalho will also be unable to rely upon the services of Portuguese midfielder Rafael Camacho, who has been sidelined since last December through a muscle injury.
He is joined on the O Belem injury table by South African full-back Thibang Phete, who sustained an injury in the game against Gil Vicente on February 19.
Tondela possible starting lineup:
Niasse; Manu, Quaresma, Alves; Borges, Dantas, Augusto, D'Almeida, Bebeto; Anjos, Barbosa
Belenenses possible starting lineup:
Felipe; Akas, Danny, Tavares, Calila; Carraca, Sithole, Nuno, Sousa; Safira, Camara
We say: Tondela 1-1 Belenenses
Off the back of a dominant cup win, Tondela will head into Monday's game with renewed confidence as they seek to move out of the relegation places. However, looking at their respective league forms, we expect both sides to take a cautious approach to the game and settle for a share of the spoils.
Top tip
Joshua Ojele
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Tondela win with a probability of 46.21%. A draw had a probability of 27.4% and a win for Belenenses had a probability of 26.44%.
The most likely scoreline for a Tondela win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.22%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.08%) and 2-1 (8.78%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.79%), while for a Belenenses win it was 0-1 (9.32%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 1-1 draw for this match.
