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Welsh Premier League | Gameweek 16
Dec 2, 2022 at 7.45pm UK
The Oval
Newtown logo

Caernarfon
2 - 3
Newtown

O'Rourke (30'), Edwards (62')
Williams (42'), Edwards (45+1')
FT(HT: 1-2)
Robles (8'), Williams (27'), Rushton (53')
Hughes (23'), Mills-Evans (67')
Coverage of the Welsh Premier League clash between Caernarfon Town and Newtown AFC.

Form, Standings, Stats

Caernarfon Town

All competitions
Last Game: Connah's Quay 3-3 Caernarfon
Friday, November 18 at 7.45pm in Welsh Premier League

Newtown AFC

All competitions
Last Game: Flint Town 1-4 Newtown
Saturday, November 19 at 2.30pm in Welsh Premier League

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Newtown AFC win with a probability of 41.41%. A win for Caernarfon Town had a probability of 34.87% and a draw had a probability of 23.7%.

The most likely scoreline for a Newtown AFC win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.77%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.24%) and 0-2 (5.92%). The likeliest Caernarfon Town win was 2-1 (7.96%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.73%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 3.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Newtown AFC would win this match.

Result
Caernarfon TownDrawNewtown AFC
34.87% (-0.068999999999996 -0.07) 23.71% (0.015999999999998 0.02) 41.41% (0.047000000000004 0.05)
Both teams to score 62.2% (-0.085000000000001 -0.09)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
60.22% (-0.102 -0.1)39.77% (0.095000000000006 0.1)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
37.87% (-0.10599999999999 -0.11)62.13% (0.1 0.1)
Caernarfon Town Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
77.28% (-0.087999999999994 -0.09)22.71% (0.079999999999998 0.08)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
43.62% (-0.123 -0.12)56.37% (0.116 0.12)
Newtown AFC Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
80.47% (-0.024000000000001 -0.02)19.52% (0.018000000000001 0.02)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
48.58% (-0.035000000000004 -0.04)51.41% (0.027999999999999 0.03)
Score Analysis
    Caernarfon Town 34.87%
    Newtown AFC 41.41%
    Draw 23.71%
Caernarfon TownDrawNewtown AFC
2-1 @ 7.96% (-0.0069999999999997 -0.01)
1-0 @ 6.57% (0.014 0.01)
2-0 @ 4.87% (-0.0019999999999998 -0)
3-1 @ 3.93% (-0.013 -0.01)
3-2 @ 3.21% (-0.012 -0.01)
3-0 @ 2.41% (-0.0059999999999998 -0.01)
4-1 @ 1.46% (-0.008 -0.01)
4-2 @ 1.19% (-0.008 -0.01)
Other @ 3.28%
Total : 34.87%
1-1 @ 10.73% (0.0099999999999998 0.01)
2-2 @ 6.5% (-0.0090000000000003 -0.01)
0-0 @ 4.43% (0.019 0.02)
3-3 @ 1.75% (-0.0079999999999998 -0.01)
Other @ 0.29%
Total : 23.71%
1-2 @ 8.77% (0.0080000000000009 0.01)
0-1 @ 7.24% (0.028 0.03)
0-2 @ 5.92% (0.02 0.02)
1-3 @ 4.78% (0.0020000000000007 0)
2-3 @ 3.54% (-0.0069999999999997 -0.01)
0-3 @ 3.22% (0.0089999999999999 0.01)
1-4 @ 1.95% (-0.0010000000000001 -0)
2-4 @ 1.45% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
0-4 @ 1.32% (0.0030000000000001 0)
Other @ 3.23%
Total : 41.41%

Head to Head
Aug 30, 2022 7.45pm
Newtown
2-1
Caernarfon
Rushton (3'), Williams (23')
Wynne (55')
Williams (49'), Wynne (73')
Oct 23, 2021 5.15pm
Newtown
1-0
Caernarfon
Mwandwe (45+2')
Roberts (45'), (88'), Jones (90+5')

Hughes (40'), Edwards (42'), John Williams (58'), Jones (88'), Evans (90+1')
Aug 27, 2021 7.45pm
Caernarfon
0-2
Newtown

Edwards (24'), (82'), Jones (84')
Evans (34')
Evans (52'), Williams (85')
(24')
May 29, 2021 12pm
Caernarfon
3-5
Newtown
Kenny (18'), Thomas (59', 73')
Kenny (9'), Cleworth (76'), (84')
Rushton (39' pen.), Mwandwe (44'), Davies (76', 80', 82')
Mills-Evans (45+5'), Williams (90')
Dec 18, 2020 7.45pm
Caernarfon
1-1
Newtown
Bradley (34')
Williams (13'), Mendes (59'), Hayes (77'), Bradley (90+4')
Breese (84')
O'Neill (31')
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
> View full version> Yesterday's results
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1The New SaintsNew Saints22170561263551
2Pen-y-BontPen-y-Bont22155242162650
3Haverfordwest CountyHaverfordwest22117429111840
4Caernarfon TownCaernarfon2210483535034
5Bala TownBala Town2271142821732
6Cardiff MUCardiff MU229583229332
7Barry Town UnitedBarry228683238-630
8Connah's Quay NomadsConnah's Quay2275103226626
9Briton Ferry2263133345-1221
10Flint Town UnitedFlint Town2262142747-2020
11Newtown AFCNewtown2254132446-2219
12Aberystwyth TownAberystwyth2242161853-3514
> Welsh Premier League Full Table


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