Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a St Pauli win with a probability of 49.87%. A win for Schalke 04 had a probability of 25.74% and a draw had a probability of 24.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a St Pauli win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.32%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.57%) and 2-0 (8.55%). The likeliest Schalke 04 win was 0-1 (6.98%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.55%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that St Pauli would win this match.
