Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Adelaide United win with a probability of 43.03%. A win for Sydney FC had a probability of 35.06% and a draw had a probability of 21.9%.
The most likely scoreline for an Adelaide United win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.41%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-1 (5.29%) and 1-0 (5.27%). The likeliest Sydney FC win was 1-2 (7.54%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (8.91%). The actual scoreline of 4-3 was predicted with a 1.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Adelaide United would win this match.