Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sydney FC win with a probability of 43.06%. A win for Wellington Phoenix had a probability of 31.62% and a draw had a probability of 25.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sydney FC win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.6%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.99%) and 2-0 (7.2%). The likeliest Wellington Phoenix win was 0-1 (7.99%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.98%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Sydney FC would win this match.