Two Basque clubs at different ends of the Primera Division table get the second half of their La Liga campaign under way on Sunday, as Alaves host Real Sociedad at Mendizorroza.
While the hosts are set to continue their battle against the drop under new management, despite a pre-Christmas downturn La Real enter 2022 with ambitions of a return to the Champions League.
Match preview
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Sitting sixth in the standings, and only a point shy of the top four at the halfway stage of their La Liga campaign, Real Sociedad will nonetheless be concerned about their faltering form just before the winter break.
Imanol Alguacil's men have not won a league match in their last five attempts, with their last victory coming back at the start of November, at Osasuna.
Indeed, they lost four top-flight games on the trot following a goalless draw with Valencia, seriously stalling their progress, and the once tangible prospect of a title challenge is now a distant dream.
Finding the net just once in nearly 500 minutes of La Liga football, La Real have only had cup competitions to keep their spirits lifted in recent times, having twice thumped lower-league opposition in the Copa del Rey and also beaten PSV 3-0 in the Europa League - the latter win securing their place in the knockout stage.
Before they meet RB Leipzig in their next European tie, however, Imanol will be keen to get back on track domestically, as they have effectively been in relegation form over the past two months.
The lowest scorers out of La Liga's top nine sides, their lack of a clinical edge is his greatest concern, and a recent COVID-19 outbreak at the club threatens his plans for a morale-boosting win at lowly Alaves.
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Ahead of Sunday's game, the home side have managed just one victory from their last five league encounters with their Basque rivals and have only scored twice during that time - proving they are very much the third force in the region, behind La Real and Athletic Club.
This term, Alaves are embroiled in a closely-fought contest for salvation, as they are tied on points with both Getafe and Elche heading into the new year and sit just below the dreaded dotted line.
El Glorioso have endured a particularly inglorious time of late, having failed to win for six league games and picked up just two points during that spell.
After also crashing out of the Copa de Rey to modest Deportivo Linares, a difficult period for head coach Javier Calleja ended in his services being dispensed with - his last match in charge a 5-2 loss to his previous club.
Since the former Villarreal boss saved the club from relegation last year, his side's form has declined, so the Alaves board have opted to bring in Jose Luis Mendilibar, who previously managed local rivals Eibar.
Mendilibar spent six years there but left when their relegation was confirmed last spring, so the Alaves supporters will hope he brings better luck this time around.
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Team News
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Approaching their return to competitive action on Sunday, it has been reported that Real Sociedad have had numerous cases of COVID-19 within their camp, so Imanol Alguacil's squad could be decimated for the trip to Alaves.
The names of those affected have not been revealed as yet, but if fit and well, Alexander Isak will most likely lead the line against the only club he has managed to score a hat-trick since signing on in San Sebastian.
The Swedish striker has registered only four La Liga goals this term though, while his club have started to struggle in the final third. Not helping matters, Mikel Oyarzabal must serve a suspension for being sent off last time out.
The visitors' ranks have been bolstered by the recent signing of Rafinha, who has joined on loan until the end of the season, having failed to feature much at PSG. However, the Brazilian midfielder has not played league football since October 15, so may need time to reach match fitness.
Alaves, meanwhile, have reported only two new COVID-19 infections, so will have a relatively stronger hand from which to choose this weekend.
New coach Jose Luis Mendilibar will also have Senegalese midfielder Mamadou Loum available, before he sets off to represent his country in the Africa Nations Cup.
Ximo Navarro remains sidelined by a serious knee injury suffered in October and Pere Pons is a major doubt, but nine-goal top scorer Joselu is in line to start up front.
Alaves possible starting lineup:
Pacheco; Aguirregabiria, Lejeune, Laguardia, Duarte; Pina, Loum, Moya; Rioja, Joselu, De La Fuente
Real Sociedad possible starting lineup:
Remiro; Munoz, Le Normand, Elustondo, Zaldua; Zubimendi, Merino; Portu, Silva, Januzaj; Isak
We say: Alaves 1-1 Real Sociedad
Events will be dictated by the visitors' ability to patch together a functioning team from their few available players, and Alaves will sense an opportunity to pick up three valuable points on Sunday.
However, the home side's shortcomings in front of goal could cost them a rare win in this Basque derby, and La Real might well hold on for a draw.
Top tip
Jonathan O'Shea
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Real Sociedad win with a probability of 61.85%. A draw had a probability of 22.3% and a win for Alaves had a probability of 15.84%.
The most likely scoreline for a Real Sociedad win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.2%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (12.08%) and 1-2 (9.65%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.54%), while for an Alaves win it was 1-0 (5.76%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 10.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 1-1 draw for this match.
