Argentinos Juniors play host to Atletico Nacional on Thursday evening knowing that victory will secure their place in the Copa Libertadores last 16.
However, Atletico will move to within one point of the Group F leaders if they can prevail at Estadio Diego Armando Maradona.
Match preview
© Reuters
Currently sitting in seventh position in the Argentine top flight, it is fair to say that Argentinos are not enjoying the best of seasons on the domestic front.
However, with three wins from four games to their name in Group F, Gabriel Milito's side are on the brink of capitalising on being handed a favourable draw.
While the 1-0 defeat at home to Universidad Catolica came as a blow, Argentinos competed at a player disadvantage from the 28th minute.
An away fixture at Nacional gives El Bicho every chance of reaching the knockout stages, but they will be eager to get over the line on Thursday.
Gabriel Avalos has scored three of Argentinos' goals in this competition, the Paraguayan netting a double during the reverse fixture between these two teams.
Having gone five matches without success in all competitions, you could be forgiven for thinking that Atletico are having a disappointing campaign.
However, as well as sitting in top spot of the Colombian top flight, they are also one victory away from giving themselves every chance of an appearance in the last 16.
Despite their remaining two Copa Libertadores fixtures being away from home, Alexandre Guimaraes's side may benefit from playing on opposition territory.
Although being held to a goalless draw by bottom side Nacional was frustrating for El Verde, Guimaraes will take the positives from keeping a clean sheet after shipping eight goals in three matches.
- W
- W
- W
- L
- D
- W
- W
- W
- W
- L
- W
- D
- L
- D
- W
- L
- D
- D
- L
- D
Team News
Emanuel Herrera could be brought in as a replacement for Argentinos forward Gabriel Hauche, who sits out this game through suspension.
Given the circumstances behind the narrow defeat last time out, Milito may be happy to keep changes to a minimum having had a week of preparation.
Javier Cabrera and Lucas Villalba are alternatives if Milito wishes to introduce fresh faces into the side.
Guimaraes will consider taking a similar stance regarding his Atletico XI, especially with his defensive-minded players.
However, Alex Castro and Jefferson Duque both have claims to be restored on the left flank and in attack respectively.
Argentinos Juniors possible starting lineup:
Chavez; Mac Allister, Torren, Quintana; Sandoval, J.Gomez, Moyano, E.Gomez; Avalos, Florentin, Herrera
Atletico Nacional possible starting lineup:
Quintana; Cordoba, Mosquera, Perea, Banguero; Perlaza, S.Gomez; Candelo, Barrera, Castro; Duque
We say: Argentinos Juniors 1-1 Atletico Nacional
Despite their relative dominance of this group, we do not expect the most expansive of performances from the home side.
With that in mind, a low-scoring draw appears to be the most likely outcome, one which will guarantee a top-two spot for Argentinos.
Top tip
Darren Plant
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Argentinos Juniors win with a probability of 46.5%. A win for Atletico Nacional had a probability of 27.93% and a draw had a probability of 25.6%.
The most likely scoreline for an Argentinos Juniors win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.88%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.23%) and 2-0 (8.27%). The likeliest Atletico Nacional win was 0-1 (8.01%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.16%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 10.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Argentinos Juniors in this match.
