Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Birmingham City win with a probability of 68.54%. A draw had a probability of 17.8% and a win for Crawley Town had a probability of 13.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Birmingham City win was 0-2 with a probability of 10.02%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.66%) and 0-1 (8.47%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.16%), while for a Crawley Town win it was 2-1 (3.93%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with an 8.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Birmingham City would win this match.