Atletico Mineiro play host to Internacional on Saturday night as the Campeonato Brasileiro Serie A leaders look to bounce back from their 1-1 draw against Palmeiras on Wednesday.
Diego Aguirre's side come into this one on the back of a 2-0 home win against Bahia and have won their last three matches in Brasileiro.
Match preview
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The hosts are undefeated in 13 games coming into their home tie against Internacional, winning eight and drawing five, including a 1-1 home draw against Palmeiras in the Copa Libertadores semi-finals on Wednesday, which saw them exit the competition on away goals.
Galo also drew their last match in the league which was a 0-0 away draw to 13th-placed Sao Paulo, meaning they have drawn their last three matches in all competitions.
Head coach Cuca has guided his side to having the best home and away record this term and they are eight points ahead of Palmeiras as they look to win their first Campeonato Brasileiro Serie A since 1971.
Hulk has been the key man up top for Galo, contributing eight goals and five assists in 20 appearances this season, but the 35-year-old has failed to get on the scoresheet in his last three games.
Mineiro will look to build on their impressive defensive record having conceded the fewest goals in the league so far by only letting in 13 goals, keeping 11 clean sheets in 21 games.
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Internacional have had a poor season thus far for their standards and are currently seventh in the table after they finished second in last season's campaign, only one point behind champions Palmeiras.
However, the three-time Serie A winners have hit a good run of form, having won their last three matches, including a 1-0 victory at home to Fortaleza who are in third place.
They are also unbeaten in eight, winning five and drawing three, with their last defeat coming against Athletico Paranaense at the end of July.
The visitors won their last match 2-0 on their own turf against Bahia as Yuri Alberto and Rodrigo Dourado grabbed the goals. Edenilson has been on fine form this season and is the top league goalscorer with nine goals and six assists, including the goal he set up for Yuri Alberto to open the scoring against Bahia.
Aguirre's side have performed better away this season and are fifth in the away table, losing just twice, compared to being 11th in the home table. However, they have only picked up two extra points away from home with 17 in 10 matches, in contrast to earning 15 points in 11 matches at the Estadio Beira-Rio.
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Team News
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The hosts will be without Diego Costa who has missed the last two matches due to injury as the former Atletico Madrid and Chelsea striker is also being investigated by police for irregularities to do with a betting website. The Spanish international had just starting picking up some minutes for Galo, scoring two goals in five games.
Keno is also likely to be out for the match here as he has missed the last two matches due to injury. However, the 32-year-old forward has yet to score for Mineiro this season in 10 appearances.
Atletico Mineiro have used a number of different formations this season with them operating with a 4-4-2 system last time out as Hulk and Eduardo Vargas were deployed up top.
Yuri Alberto is likely to lead the line once more for Internacional as the young Brazilian forward looks to build upon his impressive campaign, racking up seven goals and two assists.
Renzo Saravia is expected to return to the lineup having missed the last match due to suspension, after being shown a straight red card in the 1-0 victory over Fortaleza. However, they will still be without Rodrigo Moledo, who has missed the entire season with an injury.
Atletico Mineiro possible starting lineup:
Everson; Mariano, Nathan, Alonso, Arana; Zaracho, Jair, Allan, Fernandez; Hulk, Vargas
Internacional possible starting lineup:
Daniel; Saravia, Mendez, Cuesta, Victor; Rodrigo, Dourado; Edenilson, Taison, Patrick; Yuri Alberto
We say: Atletico Mineiro 2-1 Internacional
Atletico Mineiro have won seven out of their last eight home games and so we are predicting them to edge a narrow win here, especially since they will be looking to bounce back from their Copa Libertadores exit in midweek.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atletico Mineiro win with a probability of 44.9%. A draw had a probability of 27.9% and a win for Internacional had a probability of 27.22%.
The most likely scoreline for an Atletico Mineiro win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.43%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.89%) and 2-1 (8.57%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.95%), while for a Internacional win it was 0-1 (9.79%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 13.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Atletico Mineiro in this match.
