Augsburg will be looking to claim back-to-back Bundesliga victories for the first time this season when they play host to Mainz 05 at the WWK Arena on Wednesday evening.
The hosts have only lost one of their last six league games on home soil, while the visitors have failed to win any of their last seven matches on the road.
Match preview
© Reuters
Augsburg's hopes of maintaining their top-flight status for an 11th year were handed a major boost last weekend, when they claimed an impressive 3-0 win at home against Wolfsburg.
Brazilian left-back Iago marked his 50th Bundesliga appearance with a brilliant goal in the first minute, before second-half strikes from Florian Niederlechner and Mads Pedersen sealed their seventh league win of the campaign.
For the first time since September, Markus Weinzierl's side are not positioned inside the bottom four, as last weekend's win has seen them move up to 14th in the table, three points above the relegation zone with a game in hand on all four teams below them.
That game in hand is Wednesday's rearranged fixture against Mainz, which was due to take place last month but a COVID-19 outbreak within the latter's first-team squad forced the game to be postponed.
Augsburg have an impressive record against Mainz as they have won more Bundesliga matches against the 05ers (10) than any other team.
Die Fuggerstadter have also won each of their last four home matches against Mainz, scoring at least twice on each occasion, so they will be confident of securing all three points once again in midweek.
© Reuters
Mainz followed up their comfortable 4-0 win over Arminia Bielefeld before the international break with a 1-1 draw away at Borussia Monchengladbach last weekend.
It was a game of two halves at Borussia-Park as Karim Onisiwo's 73rd-minute strike cancelled out Breel Embolo's 33rd-minute opener, forcing both sides to share the spoils. Onisiwo has now scored seven of his last eight Bundesliga goals away from home.
Bo Svensson has, though, seen his side slip out of the top half of the table and down to 10th place, 12 points clear of the danger zone and six points behind the European places with seven matches remaining.
Mainz have now failed to win any of their last seven away games in the top flight despite scoring in six of these matches. Only basement club Greuther Furth (two) have accumulated fewer points than the 05ers (eight) on the road so far this season.
However, Svensson's men will be confident of ending their poor away run on Wednesday against Augsburg, who they beat 4-1 in October's reverse fixture.
- L
- L
- D
- W
- L
- W
- D
- W
- L
- L
- W
- D
Team News
© Reuters
Augsburg pair Noah Sarenren Bazee and Tobias Strobl are both ruled out for the rest of the season with ACL injuries, while Felix Uduokhai (hip) and Michael Gregoritsch (COVID-19) will also miss out on Wednesday.
Daniel Caligiuri is a doubt after picking up a minor ankle injury last weekend, but the 34-year-old could keep his place at right wing-back if he is deemed fit to play, while Ruben Vargas is also a doubt due to illness.
Weinzierl is unlikely to make too many changes, if any, to his starting lineup after last weekend's impressive win, but the likes of Andre Hahn and Andi Zeqiri will be hoping to force their way into the first XI.
As for Mainz, centre-back Jeremiah St Juste (shoulder) and winger Delano Burgzorg (heart condition) are both sidelined as they continue to recover from their respective issues.
Dominik Kohr is available to return after serving a one-match suspension last weekend, and he could be handed a start in centre-midfield alongside either Leandro Martins or newly-capped Germany international Anton Stach.
Jonathan Burkhardt and Onisiwo, who both contributed to three of the four goals scored in the 4-1 win over Augsburg in the reverse fixture, are set to start together in attack.
Augsburg possible starting lineup:
Gikiewicz; Gumny, Oxford, Gouweleeuw; Caligiuri, Maier, Dorsch, Iago; Pepi, Pedersen; Niederlechner
Mainz 05 possible starting lineup:
Zentner; Hack, Bell, Niakhate; Widmer, Martins, Kohr, Boetius, Lucoqui; Burkardt; Onisiwo
We say: Augsburg 2-2 Mainz 05
Both sides will be looking to claim maximum points on Wednesday, with Mainz having an outside chance of qualifying for Europe, while Augsburg will be keen to move further away from the relegation zone.
Each of the last 12 Bundesliga meetings between these two sides has seen a victory for one team or the other, but as there is little separate them this time around, an entertaining score draw could be on the cards.
Top tip
Oliver Thomas
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Mainz 05 win with a probability of 38.23%. A win for Augsburg had a probability of 36.48% and a draw had a probability of 25.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Mainz 05 win was 0-1 with a probability of 8.64%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.46%) and 0-2 (6.13%). The likeliest Augsburg win was 1-0 (8.41%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.92%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.2% likelihood.
