Bundesliga

Bundesliga | Gameweek 26

Apr 6, 2022 at 5.30pm UK

WWK Arena

Augsburg
2 - 1
Mainz 05

Gouweleeuw (11' pen.), Vargas (56')
Gruezo (75'), Gouweleeuw (76'), Gumny (80')

FT(HT: 1-0)

Widmer (54')
Bell (15'), Widmer (83')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Wednesday's Bundesliga clash between Augsburg and Mainz 05, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Augsburg

Last Six:

Last Game: Augsburg 2-1 Greuther Furth
Saturday, May 14 at 2.30pm in Bundesliga

Next Game: BW Lohne vs. Augsburg
Friday, July 29 at 1am in DFB-Pokal

Current League Standings		P	GD	PTS
13	VfL Bochum	34	-14	42
14	Augsburg	34	-17	38
15	Stuttgart	34	-18	33

Mainz 05

Last Six:

Last Game: Mainz 05 2-2 Frankfurt
Saturday, May 14 at 2.30pm in Bundesliga

Next Game: Erzgebirge Aue vs. Mainz 05
Friday, July 29 at 1am in DFB-Pokal

Current League Standings		P	GD	PTS
7	FC Koln	34	3	52
8	Mainz 05	34	5	46
9	Hoffenheim	34	-2	46

We said: Augsburg 2-2 Mainz 05

Both sides will be looking to claim maximum points on Wednesday, with Mainz having an outside chance of qualifying for Europe, while Augsburg will be keen to move further away from the relegation zone. Each of the last 12 Bundesliga meetings between these two sides has seen a victory for one team or the other, but as there is little separate them this time around, an entertaining score draw could be on the cards. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Mainz 05 win with a probability of 38.23%. A win for Augsburg had a probability of 36.48% and a draw had a probability of 25.3%.

The most likely scoreline for a Mainz 05 win was 0-1 with a probability of 8.64%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.46%) and 0-2 (6.13%). The likeliest Augsburg win was 1-0 (8.41%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.92%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.2% likelihood.

Result
Augsburg	Draw	Mainz 05
36.48%	25.29%	38.23%

Both teams to score 56.71%

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

53%

47%

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

30.75%

69.24%

Augsburg Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

74.83%

25.17%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

40.11%

59.89%

Mainz 05 Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

75.78%

24.22%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

41.44%

58.56%

Score Analysis

Augsburg 36.48%

Mainz 05 38.23%

Draw 25.28%

Augsburg	Draw	Mainz 05
1-0 @ 8.41% 2-1 @ 8.23% 2-0 @ 5.8% 3-1 @ 3.78% 3-2 @ 2.68% 3-0 @ 2.67% 4-1 @ 1.31% 4-2 @ 0.93% 4-0 @ 0.92% Other @ 1.77% Total : 36.48%	1-1 @ 11.92% 0-0 @ 6.1% 2-2 @ 5.83% 3-3 @ 1.27% Other @ 0.17% Total : 25.28%	0-1 @ 8.64% 1-2 @ 8.46% 0-2 @ 6.13% 1-3 @ 4% 0-3 @ 2.9% 2-3 @ 2.76% 1-4 @ 1.42% 0-4 @ 1.03% 2-4 @ 0.98% Other @ 1.93% Total : 38.23%