Two teams separated by only three points in the MLS Western Conference will battle each other on Sunday when Austin FC host Dallas at Q2 Stadium in Texas.
The Verde-and-Black ended a three-game losing streak with a 3-1 win versus the Portland Timbers and the Toros played the Houston Dynamo to a 2-2 draw.
Match preview
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If there is one team Josh Wolff would love to face again and again, it would probably be the Timbers, who seem to bring out the very best in his youthful expansion side.
Last Saturday, the lowest-scoring team in MLS were relentless in attack and firing on all cylinders with three goals in less than a half-hour en route to a very comfortable victory.
There were plenty of parallels from that match to their 4-1 win over Portland earlier this year, but this team will hope to keep that momentum going this time out, which they were unable to do following their win on July 1 when they lost three straight league matches following their four-goal outburst.
Austin made it a point to find more attacking options during the last transfer window, and early on, it looks like the addition of Sebastian Driussi has paid off as he was instrumental in their victory last weekend, unlocking the Timbers defence on many occasions, playing in a much more favourable role just in behind Cecilio Dominguez.
After a performance like that, they probably wish that they did not have an eight-day break before their next match, knowing the kind of momentum they are riding at the moment.
Technically speaking, this team are indeed strong, with a pass accuracy that is consistently in the high 80s, but it might be a good idea for them to be a little more selfish in the final third at times, firing no more than two shots on target in three of their last four fixtures.
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It has to be frustrating for Luchi Gonzalez to wrap his head around how his side can be so good against the contending teams in the league but then struggle to claim three points against beatable opponents.
On Saturday, the Toros had three points in their grasp with the go-ahead goal in the 58th minute but conceded 15 minutes later in an evenly-played match in Houston.
While they certainly created their fair share of opportunities, firing six shots on target, they are far too easy to break down defensively when playing away from home, allowing two goals from four shots on target last weekend.
Their 4-2-3-1 formation has been especially shaky on the road, conceding 19 goals in 10 games while only coming away with one win.
Gonzalez has emphasised to his team the importance of channelling their opponents' energy this weekend, and they will need to find a way to do that against a raucous home crowd expected on Sunday.
The Toros are only four points behind the San Jose Earthquakes in the playoff chase, but they need to put together a winning run to move above the post-season line, and their next three games could tell us a lot about their playoff chances, as they follow up this match with a visit to Real Salt Lake before hosting the Quakes, the two teams currently holding on to sixth and seventh place in the Western Conference.
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Team News
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Diego Fagundez notched the game-winner for the Verde-and-Black last Saturday, his fourth of the year, putting him just one behind Dominguez for the team lead, while Nick Lima collected his first assist of the season on that goal, sitting just two back of Jared Stroud in that category so far.
Ulises Segura and Aaron Schoenfeld remain sidelined with left knee injuries, Ben Sweat has an ACL issue and Danny Hoesen is still out with a left hip problem.
Wolff made three changes to their starting 11 versus Portland from their previous encounter as Julio Cascante replaced Jhohan Romana, Zan Kolmanic started at left-back in place of Hector Jimenez and Jon Gallagher played as an attacking midfielder, taking over from Tomas Pochettino.
Ricardo Pepi, the leading goalscorer for Dallas with nine goals in the regular season, scored the decisive penalty kick at the All-Star game for his MLS team and he scored his first goal in league play last week since his hat-trick against the Los Angeles Galaxy back in July.
On the injury front, they are still missing Beni Redzic with an ankle sprain, Paxton Pomykal has a knee injury, Johnny Nelson is struggling with back spasms and Facundo Quignon is nursing a groin strain.
Franco Jara can return to the team after missing their last match versus the Dynamo through a yellow card suspension, while Nkosi Burgess has made the most of his opportunity to play this season, scoring his first career MLS goal last week.
Austin FC possible starting lineup:
Stuver; Lima, Cascante, Besler, Romana; Pereira, Ring; Pochettino, Driussi, Fagundez; Dominguez
Dallas possible starting lineup:
Maurer; Hollingshead, Bressan, Burgess, Che; Acosta, Cerillo; Schon, Ferreira, Jara; Pepi
We say: Austin FC 2-0 Dallas
Austin have been limited when it comes to attacking options all season, but they seem to have found the solution with the signing of Driussi, who can add an attacking element to an already solid midfield.
Every time the post-season is within reach, the Toros seem to have a let-down, plus they look out of sorts defensively when playing away from home.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Austin FC win with a probability of 43.89%. A win for Dallas had a probability of 31.51% and a draw had a probability of 24.6%.
The most likely scoreline for an Austin FC win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.1%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.86%) and 2-0 (7%). The likeliest Dallas win was 1-2 (7.5%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.53%). The actual scoreline of 3-5 was predicted with a 0.1% likelihood.
