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Birmingham logo
Championship | Gameweek 45
May 1, 2021 at 3pm UK
St. Andrew's Stadium
Cardiff City logo

Birmingham
0 - 4
Cardiff


Dean (84')
FT(HT: 0-2)
Wilson (9', 40', 86'), Harris (68')
Pack (61')

Preview: Birmingham City vs. Cardiff City - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Championship clash between Birmingham City and Cardiff City, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Birmingham City welcome Cardiff City to St Andrew's on Saturday afternoon with their place in the Championship ensured for another season.

The Blues beat Derby County 2-1 last time out to make certain of survival, while Cardiff saw off Wycombe Wanderers by the same scoreline to tighten their hold on eighth place.


Match preview

Birmingham City's Scott Hogan celebrates scoring their first goal against Swansea City in the Championship on April 2, 2021© Reuters

Relegation looked a real possibility for Birmingham for a large part of the season, but Lee Bowyer's arrival in mid-March has completely transformed their campaign.

The Blues have won five, drawn two and lost one of their eight matches under the former Charlton Athletic boss, most recently picking up all three points at Midlands rivals Derby.

From being three points above the dropzone, having played four games more than Rotherham United in the final relegation spot, Birmingham are now 13 points clear.

The victory at Pride Park, secured thanks to Lukas Jutkiewicz's second-half double, means that Bowyer's men can now finish no lower than 20th.

The pressure is therefore off for this penultimate game of the campaign against a Cardiff side who themselves have little left to play for on the face of it.

Mick McCarthy's men were in superb form from the start of February until the middle of March, taking 23 points from a possible 27 to climb into the playoff positions.

Cardiff City's Kieffer Moore celebrates scoring their first goal from the penalty spot against Brentford in the Championship on April 20, 2021© Reuters

Sustaining that form was never likely to be possible, of course, and so it has proved with a run of two wins in 11 prior to last week's visit of bottom side Wycombe Wanderers.

Kieffer Moore netted twice against Wycombe to reach 20 league goals for the campaign - the first Cardiff player to do so since Jay Bothroyd and the late Peter Whittingham in 2011.

That ended a winless run of five games for Cardiff and leaves them five points off Reading in seventh, which will now be the target for McCarthy.

The Bluebirds are seeking back-to-back wins for the first time since that aforementioned winning run in February, while Birmingham are aiming to make it seven without defeat.

Cardiff won the reverse fixture 3-2 four months ago, but they have won just one of their last 18 league visits to Birmingham - a 1-0 victory on New Year's Day in 2013.

Birmingham City Championship form:
  • W
  • D
  • W
  • W
  • D
  • W

Cardiff City Championship form:
  • L
  • L
  • D
  • D
  • D
  • W



Team News

Cardiff City's Sean Morrison celebrates scoring against Middlesbrough on July 18, 2020© Reuters

Scott Hogan missed the win against Derby with a hip injury sustained against Nottingham Forest, and the seven-goal striker is not expected to be back in time for this match.

Bowyer paired Jonathan Leko with Jutkiewicz in Hogan's absence, but he may be tempted to give youth a chance here, with Amari Miller possibly in line for a first start.

Steve Seddon was replaced at half time at Pride Park and may miss out to Ivan Sanchez against Cardiff.

As for the visitors, they will definitely be without midfielder Will Vaulks following his late sending off against Wycombe.

Joe Bennett, Sol Bamba and Lee Tomlin are long-term absentees, but skipper Sean Morrison returned from a month-long injury layoff last week.

McCarthy notably left out Cardiff's array of loan players against Wycombe with an eye on next season, so expect youngsters Rubin Colwill and Ciaron Brown to appear again here.

Birmingham City possible starting lineup:
Etheridge; Colin, Dean, Roberts, Pedersen; Sunjic, Gardner; McGree, Sanchez, Bela; Jutkiewicz

Cardiff City possible starting lineup:
Smithies; Morrison, Flint, Nelson; Ng, Pack, Ralls, Brown; Colwill, Murphy; Moore


SM words green background

We say: Birmingham City 2-2 Cardiff City

With the pressure off for both sides, this could be an entertaining contest in the West Midlands.

Eighteen goals have been scored in the last four meetings between the sides, and we can see the spoils being shared here in a high-scoring draw.



Top tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting a double chance bet on a home win or an away win in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Home/Away:data



ID:445306:1false2false3false:QQ:: from db desktop :LenBod:collect9553:
Written by
Daniel Lewis

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cardiff City win with a probability of 40.59%. A win for Birmingham City had a probability of 30.72% and a draw had a probability of 28.7%.

The most likely scoreline for a Cardiff City win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.03%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.06%) and 0-2 (7.92%). The likeliest Birmingham City win was 1-0 (10.91%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.26%). The actual scoreline of 0-4 was predicted with a 1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Cardiff City would win this match.


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Game History

How you voted: Birmingham vs Cardiff

Birmingham City
49.2%
Draw
33.8%
Cardiff City
16.9%
65
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Today's games header
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Wycombe WanderersWycombe20135243222144
2Birmingham CityBirmingham18133234161842
3Wrexham21126331141742
4Huddersfield TownHuddersfield20123534181639
5Stockport CountyStockport21106534221236
6Lincoln CityLincoln218762825331
7Reading209473030031
8Bolton WanderersBolton199462829-131
9Barnsley218672930-130
10Mansfield TownMansfield198472322128
11Charlton AthleticCharlton207672319427
12Blackpool207672931-227
13Exeter CityExeter208391922-327
14Stevenage197571517-226
15Leyton Orient207492320325
16Peterborough UnitedPeterborough2073103837124
17Wigan AthleticWigan206681918124
18Rotherham UnitedRotherham196581921-223
19Bristol Rovers2064101829-1122
20Northampton TownNorthampton2156102134-1321
21Crawley TownCrawley1954102032-1219
22Cambridge UnitedCambridge2045112035-1517
23Burton Albion2026121732-1512
24Shrewsbury TownShrewsbury2033142141-2012


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