Luton Town will be looking to move off the foot of the Championship table when they welcome Birmingham City to Kenilworth Road on Saturday afternoon.
The Hatters are currently bottom of the second tier with 21 points, while Birmingham occupy 18th position having collected 28 points from their first 26 matches of the 2019-20 campaign.
Match preview
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It was always going to be tough for Luton in the Championship despite their excellent form last season, which led to them winning League One and earning a spot in the second tier of English football.
Graeme Jones's side have only managed to win six of their 26 league matches this season, drawing three and losing the other 17 to sit bottom of the table with 21 points.
Their situation is far from terminal, though, as just three points separates them from Stoke City in 21st. The reigning League One champions are potentially one win away from moving out of the relegation zone entirely, but their form in recent weeks has been slightly concerning.
Indeed, Luton have only won one of their last eight in the Championship and have lost five of their last six, including their last two against Bristol City and Millwall. The clash with Birmingham is huge considering that Jones's team are next in action away to Nottingham Forest on January 19.
No side have conceded more times in the second tier than the Hatters this season (56), while they have only beaten Birmingham once since April 1986.
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Birmingham last competed in the Premier League during the 2010-11 campaign but have been stuck in the Championship since. Back-to-back 19th-place finishes were followed by 17th last season, which is an indication of how far the Blues have been away from challenging for promotion.
It has been more of the same for the club this season as they currently occupy 18th position with a record of eight wins, five draws and 13 defeats from their 26 league matches this term.
Luton might have the worst defensive record in the Championship this season, but only four sides have scored fewer goals than Birmingham during the 2019-20 campaign. Pep Clotet's side will actually enter the match off the back of a win having beaten Blackburn Rovers 2-1 in the third round of the FA Cup last weekend.
The Blues have lost five of their last six in the league, though, and have only picked up one Championship victory since the end of October, which is extremely concerning form at this stage of the season.
Luton Championship form: LLLDLL
Luton form (all competitions): LLDLLL
Birmingham Championship form: LLLDLL
Birmingham form (all competitions): LLDLLW
Team News
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Luton are again expected to be without the services of Isaiah Brown, Brendan Galloway and Danny Hylton, but Kazenga LuaLua should shake off a problem to make the starting XI this weekend.
James Collins has managed eight Championship goals this season and will again lead the line, while Callum McManaman is also expected to keep his spot in the team.
As for Birmingham, Jefferson Montero and Jacques Maghoma are both pushing for spots in the side having impressed off the bench against Wigan Athletic on New Year's Day.
Ivan Sunjic's red card against Blackburn in the FA Cup means that the 23-year-old will be suspended for this weekend's clash, though, which could see David Davis continue in the side.
There will also be another start for 16-year-old Jude Bellingham, who is believed to be attracting a host of Premier League interest due to his form during the 2019-20 campaign.
Luton possible starting lineup:
Shea; Pearson, Cranie, Bradley; Bree, Ruddock, Tunnicliffe, Sheehan; LuaLua, Collins, McManaman
Birmingham possible starting lineup:
Trueman; Colin, Gardner, Dean, Pedersen; Bellingham, Davis, McEachran, Bela; Mrabti, Jutkiewicz
We say: Luton 1-1 Birmingham
Both teams will see this match as the perfect opportunity to pick up all three points. It is difficult to back either with any real confidence due to their recent form, though, and we therefore fancy a low-scoring draw.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a win with a probability of 38.79%. A win for had a probability of 37.02% and a draw had a probability of 24.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.51%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.45%) and 0-2 (5.71%). The likeliest win was 2-1 (8.29%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.11%).
