Blackburn Rovers head into their Good Friday showdown with Peterborough United knowing that they need to end a three-game winless streak to keep pace with the top six in the Championship standings.
Meanwhile, Peterborough are almost at the point of no return as far as survival are concerned, the bottom-placed side sitting nine points adrift of safety with five matches remaining.
Match preview
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Despite having won just four league fixtures since the turn of the year, Blackburn have somehow been able to keep themselves in contention for the playoffs.
However, failing to prevail from a winning position for the second game in succession, this time at home to Blackpool, has left Rovers two points adrift of seventh spot.
While Tony Mowbray will feel that his squad are on the brink of undoing all of their hard work during the first half of the season, he will acknowledge that their five-game run-in is far more favourable than many of the teams around them.
Rovers require more than the odd win here and there to remain in the hunt for promotion but now that goals are being scored more frequently, there is more reason for optimism than there would have been before the international break.
Ben Brereton Diaz is still waiting for his first goal in 2022, the Chile international having played 584 minutes in the Championship without finding the back of the net.
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The majority of Peterborough fans will feel that the club are now heading in the right direction under Grant McCann, who was drafted into the dugout towards the end of February.
However, despite only losing two of their last seven league fixtures, one win and four draws has not been enough to keep pace with a resurgent Reading in 21st position.
Having played the final 31 minutes of Saturday's fixture at Bristol City with 10 men, McCann will be satisfied with a share of the spoils, but Posh require a minimum of 10 points, realistically more than that, from their final five games to stand any chance of avoiding relegation.
There was a time when the majority of Peterborough's points were coming from home fixtures, but their last success at the Weston Homes Stadium came back on December 11.
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Team News
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Peterborough will be forced into at least one alteration after Joe Ward was sent off during the second half against Bristol City.
Although McCann may consider reverting to a defensive three, Josh Knight may move out to right-back to accommodate the return of Frankie Kent.
Unless there are further selection issues, the remainder of the team could stay the same given the level of their performance at Ashton Gate.
Scott Wharton is expected to be fit for Blackburn despite his withdrawal with a facial injury against Blackpool.
Ryan Giles and John Buckley will be considered for recalls, the latter seemingly being the most likely having been a regular for the majority of the campaign.
Peterborough United possible starting lineup:
Cornell; Knight, Kent, Edwards, Burrows; Taylor, Fuchs; Poku, Szmodics, Jones; Clarke-Harris
Blackburn Rovers possible starting lineup:
Kaminski; Lenihan, Van Hecke, Wharton; Nyambe, Travis, Rothwell, Pickering; Buckley; Gallagher, Brereton Diaz
We say: Peterborough United 1-1 Blackburn Rovers
To a certain degree, both clubs must go all out for victory in this contest if they want to achieve their targets this campaign. However, this has all the makings of a tense affair, one which we feel will end on level terms and not benefit either team.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Blackburn Rovers win with a probability of 44.23%. A win for Peterborough United had a probability of 28.19% and a draw had a probability of 27.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Blackburn Rovers win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.83%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.63%) and 0-2 (8.57%). The likeliest Peterborough United win was 1-0 (9.67%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.92%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 6.5% likelihood.
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