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Blackburn logo
Championship | Gameweek 42
Apr 16, 2021 at 6pm UK
Ewood Park
Derby logo

Blackburn
2 - 1
Derby

Gallagher (42'), Elliott (66')
Holtby (32'), Elliott (67')
FT(HT: 1-1)
Lawrence (22')
Clarke (45+1')

Preview: Blackburn Rovers vs. Derby County - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Friday's Championship clash between Blackburn Rovers and Derby County, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Two sides that remain in Championship relegation danger face off at Ewood Park on Friday evening as Blackburn Rovers host Derby County.

The visitors have lost back-to-back games and enter this contest two places above the dropzone, while Rovers are 17th following a seven-game winless streak.


Match preview

Derby County's manager Wayne Rooney before the match on March 6, 2021© Reuters

Derby's 1-0 home loss to league leaders Norwich City last weekend - Kieran Dowell scoring the only goal in that one - leaves them just four points above the relegation zone.

Should Rotherham United and Coventry City win their games in hand, Wayne Rooney's side will find themselves in the relegation zone.

Blackburn have a slightly healthier margin on the bottom three, though defeat on Friday and Tony Mowbray's men will well and truly be in the relegation mix.

This is a big game for both sides, then, as they each attempt to get back to winning ways with only four matches to go after this one.

The Blue and Whites can be happy with their point away at Cardiff City last time out, with Adam Armstrong scoring his second goal in added time to snatch a 2-2 draw.

Blackburn Rovers manager Tony Mowbray pictured in January 2021© Reuters

However, Rovers have now won just one of their last 15 league games, losing nine and drawing five. Not since February 2016, meanwhile, have they gone more games without a win.

Derby have won of their last ten Championship fixtures, conceding 14 goals and scoring just six in that stretch.

Indeed, since the start of that run on February 26, no team has picked up fewer points than the Rams in the entire division (six).

Bringing an end to that run on Friday will be difficult if recent results between these sides are anything to go by, with Derby losing three in a row at Ewood Park without scoring.

The Rams have lost five of their last seven league matches with Rovers overall, most recently falling to a 4-0 defeat earlier this season.

In what is a big game at the bottom end of the table, another loss here and Derby will be at serious risk of dropping into the third tier.

Blackburn Rovers Championship form:
  • L
  • D
  • D
  • L
  • L
  • D

Derby County Championship form:
  • L
  • D
  • L
  • W
  • L
  • L



Team News

Blackburn Rovers' Adam Armstrong celebrates scoring against Rotherham United in the Championship on December 16, 2020© Reuters

Martyn Waghorn and Matt Clarke are in contention to return from respective hamstring and groin issues, while Nathan Byrne is also back after recovering from a head injury.

However, Derby remain without Lee Gregory, Jack Stretton and George Edmundson for this clash, which has been brought forward a day to avoid clashing with Prince Philip's funeral.

Louie Sibley, Louie Watson and Festy Ebosele were brought on as second-half substitutes against Norwich and are each pushing for inclusion in the starting lineup here.

As for the hosts, Bradley Dack will not play again this season - and possibly the rest of 2020 - while Joe Rothwell suffered an injury last week that ruled him out against Cardiff.

Lewis Holtby was brought on as part of a quintet of changes made after 78 minutes in the Cardiff game, giving an idea of what Mowbray thought of the performance up to that point.

While changes can be expected on Friday, Armstrong and Liverpool loanee Harvey Elliott are surely assured of a starting spot in attack.

Blackburn Rovers possible starting lineup:
Kaminski; Nyambe, Lenihan, Harwood-Bellis, Douglas; Johnson, Trybull, Rothwell; Elliott, Armstrong, Dolan

Derby County possible starting lineup:
Marshall; Macdonald, Wisdom, Mengi, Forsyth; Roberts, Bird, Shinnie, Jozwiak; Kazim-Richards, Lawrence


SM words green background

We say: Blackburn Rovers 0-0 Derby County

Blackburn are winless in seven home games, failing to score in the last three of those, while Derby are without a victory in six away matches, failing to score in four.

This is likely to be a real scrap and, going by that recent form, we are tipping this one to finish as a low-scoring draw.



Top tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting a double chance bet on a home win or an away win in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Home/Away:data



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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Blackburn Rovers win with a probability of 44.13%. A win for Derby County had a probability of 28.23% and a draw had a probability of 27.6%.

The most likely scoreline for a Blackburn Rovers win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.86%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.61%) and 2-0 (8.56%). The likeliest Derby County win was 0-1 (9.72%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.93%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Blackburn Rovers would win this match.


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Game History

How you voted: Blackburn vs Derby

Blackburn Rovers
57.0%
Draw
17.7%
Derby County
25.3%
79
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2Sheffield UnitedSheff Utd1510321971231
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4Burnley157621861227
5West Bromwich AlbionWest Brom15672169725
6Watford158162322125
7Middlesbrough157352317624
8Millwall156541813523
9Blackburn RoversBlackburn156451917222
10Bristol City155732019122
11Swansea CitySwansea155461110119
12Derby CountyDerby155461919019
13Stoke CityStoke155461819-119
14Norwich CityNorwich154652322118
15Sheffield WednesdaySheff Weds155371725-818
16Oxford UnitedOxford Utd154561718-117
17Coventry CityCoventry154472021-116
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