Blackburn Rovers play host to Millwall on Wednesday evening sitting just three points adrift of the Championship playoff places.
At a time when Rovers have put together a five-match unbeaten streak, the visitors have recorded five successive draws, resulting in them dropping down to 11th position.
Match preview
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Like last season, some of Blackburn's results have gone under the radar, but they have now reemerged as one of the dark horses for a playoff spot come the end of the season.
As well as retaining their record for the most goals in the division, Tony Mowbray's side have collected 11 points from their last five matches in the second tier.
Their latest success came on Saturday as they edged out Barnsley by a 2-1 scoreline in a game which saw Adam Armstrong net his 13th goal of the campaign.
Rovers have now started to add defensive performances to their game with just three goals being conceded in their last half a dozen outings.
Maintaining that ratio at the back is just as important as Armstrong continuing with his scoring streak, although the latter may prove more difficult against one of the strongest defensive teams in the league.
Gary Rowett is coming in for a bit of criticism after five draws in a row, a run which has led to the Lions moving down from the playoffs and into mid-table.
Nevertheless, with three shutouts coming from five matches, the foundations are there for Millwall to hang around the top 10 in the long term.
Rowett's problems are in attack with no-one other than Jed Wallace scoring more than one goal in the Championship this season, a record which must change sooner rather than later.
Despite possessing the third-best defensive record in the division, Rowett knows that it will count for little unless the Lions begin turning draws into victories.
Blackburn Rovers Championship form: LDWDWW
Millwall Championship form: LDDDDD
Team News
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Rowett will almost certainly make changes to his Millwall attack, potentially recalling Matt Smith in place of Jon Dadi Bodvarsson.
Having failed to make an impact in the last two games, Tottenham Hotspur loanee Troy Parrott is likely to drop out for Tom Bradshaw.
Blackburn will be forced into at least one alteration after Barry Douglas picked up an injury at the weekend.
Sam Gallagher could also take the place of either Harvey Elliott or Ben Brereton on one of the flanks.
Blackburn Rovers possible starting lineup:
Kaminski; Nyambe, Wharton, Lenihan, Bell; Holtby, Trybull, Johnson; Gallagher, Armstrong, Brereton
Millwall possible starting lineup:
Bialkowski; Hutchinson, Pearce, Cooper; Leonard, Woods, Thompson, M.Wallace; J.Wallace, Smith, Bradshaw
We say: Blackburn Rovers 2-1 Millwall
Despite facing opponents who have won just four times this season, Rovers will not get complacent against a strong defensive unit. The goals may not flow like they have previously in the season, but we expect the home side to edge a tight game by the odd goal in three.
Top betting tip
Darren Plant
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Blackburn Rovers win with a probability of 39.79%. A win for Millwall had a probability of 33.3% and a draw had a probability of 26.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Blackburn Rovers win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.8%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.43%) and 2-0 (7.13%). The likeliest Millwall win was 0-1 (9.69%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.78%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Blackburn Rovers would win this match.
