Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ceara win with a probability of 51.13%. A draw had a probability of 27.3% and a win for Cuiaba had a probability of 21.61%.
The most likely scoreline for a Ceara win was 1-0 with a probability of 15.26%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.77%) and 2-1 (8.76%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.4%), while for a Cuiaba win it was 0-1 (8.79%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 15.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Ceara in this match.