Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sao Paulo win with a probability of 37.58%. A win for Ceara had a probability of 36.22% and a draw had a probability of 26.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sao Paulo win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.57%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.29%) and 0-2 (6.37%). The likeliest Ceara win was 1-0 (9.36%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.45%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.5% likelihood.