Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sao Paulo win with a probability of 40.81%. A win for Fortaleza had a probability of 32.55% and a draw had a probability of 26.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sao Paulo win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.71%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.59%) and 0-2 (7.27%). The likeliest Fortaleza win was 1-0 (9.33%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.66%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 2.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Sao Paulo would win this match.