Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Fluminense win with a probability of 47.25%. A draw had a probability of 27.3% and a win for Athletico Paranaense had a probability of 25.42%.
The most likely scoreline for a Fluminense win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.6%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.41%) and 2-1 (8.81%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.73%), while for an Athletico Paranaense win it was 0-1 (9.21%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Fluminense would win this match.