Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Fluminense win with a probability of 51.11%. A draw had a probability of 27.2% and a win for Sport Recife had a probability of 21.74%.
The most likely scoreline for a Fluminense win was 1-0 with a probability of 15.09%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.71%) and 2-1 (8.8%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.4%), while for a Sport Recife win it was 0-1 (8.74%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 15.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Fluminense in this match.