Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Gremio win with a probability of 60.82%. A draw had a probability of 23.2% and a win for Botafogo had a probability of 15.94%.
The most likely scoreline for a Gremio win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.32%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.45%) and 2-1 (9.43%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.85%), while for a Botafogo win it was 0-1 (6.24%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 5.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Gremio would win this match.