There are plenty of incentives for both teams to claim maximum points on Thursday, with the hosts seeking to move out of the drop zone and the visitors hoping to force their way into the top four.
Fortaleza came out on top the last time that these two teams met, and we believe that they have enough quality throughout their side to claim another victory in Rio de Janeiro.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Vasco da Gama win with a probability of 44.41%. A draw had a probability of 27.9% and a win for Fortaleza had a probability of 27.71%.
The most likely scoreline for a Vasco da Gama win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.26%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.74%) and 2-1 (8.55%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.97%), while for a Fortaleza win it was 0-1 (9.85%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 13.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Vasco da Gama in this match.
0.05) 
-0.02) 
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