Burkina Faso and Ethiopia close out their Africa Cup of Nations group-stage journey with a clash at the Kouekong Stadium on Monday.
Burkina Faso can all but secure a place in the last 16 by avoiding defeat, while Ethiopia need to win to stand any chance of making it through.
Match preview
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Burkina Faso bounced back from an opening defeat to Cameroon in style by seeing off the threat of Cape Verde in a 1-0 victory on Thursday.
Hassane Bande grabbed the game's all-important goal in the 39th minute to secure a vital three points for Kamou Malo's men at the Paul Biya Stadium.
The Stallions are second in Group A as a result, three points adrift of Cameroon - the only team in the group to have won both of their two matches.
Unbeaten in nine of their last 10 games across all competitions, Burkina Faso are playing some of their best football at the moment despite missing some key players.
Next up for the 2013 AFCON finalists is a crunch clash against an opposing side who have lost two of the last three meetings between the teams.
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Ethiopia were thrashed 4-1 by host nation Cameroon in their second group-stage fixture on Thursday in Yaounde.
Wubetu Abate's men made a dream start to the contest, taking the lead in the fourth minute through Dawa Hotessa before four unanswered goals split evenly between Vincent Aboubakar and Karl Toko Ekambi turned the game on its head.
The Walia Ibex are yet to pick up a point so far and are rooted to the bottom of their group standings heading into matchday three.
With a fifth straight first-round exit on the horizon, the East Africans are now in the last chance saloon to salvage their AFCON campaign.
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Team News
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Bertrand Traore missed Burkina Faso's last outing having returned a positive COVID-19 test which is set to see the Aston Villa man miss Monday's game as well.
Traore's replacement Hassane Bande made the most of a rare spot in the XI by scoring the decisive goal and will be looking to come up trumps once again.
Dawa Hotessa was on the scoresheet in his first start of the tournament and the forward is expected to retain his spot in the starting XI at the expense of Getaneh Kebede.
Yared Baye is eligible to feature in this one having served his one-game suspension courtesy of a sending-off in the defeat to Cape Verde.
Burkina Faso possible starting lineup:
Koffi; E Tapsoba, Yago, Dayo, Kabore; Toure, Guira, Sangare; A Tapsoba, Bayala, Bande
Ethiopia possible starting lineup:
Shanko; Yusef, Tamene, Debebe, Hamid; Yohannes, Alemu, Dagnachew; Nesir, Hotessa, Gebremichael
We say: Burkina Faso 2-1 Ethiopia
Burkina Faso were impressive in their last involvement and will back themselves to heap more misery on an out-of-form Ethiopia side. We expect Burkina Faso to get the job done and progress into the last 16.
Top tip
Adepoju Marvellous
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Burkina Faso win with a probability of 50.1%. A draw had a probability of 28.7% and a win for Ethiopia had a probability of 21.24%.
The most likely scoreline for a Burkina Faso win was 1-0 with a probability of 16.72%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.98%) and 2-1 (8.21%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (12.72%), while for a Ethiopia win it was 0-1 (9.51%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.5% likelihood.
Eq Guinea
Nigeria
Ivory Coast
Guinea-Bissau
Cape Verde
Egypt
Ghana
Mozambique
Senegal
Guinea
Cameroon
Gambia
Angola
Burkina Faso
Mauritania
Algeria
Mali
South Africa
Namibia
Tunisia
Morocco
Congo DR
Tanzania
Zambia
