We said: Elfsborg 1-1 Nice
Nice have lost both of their previous games away in Sweden, and Elfsborg lost 5-3 on aggregate to Strasbourg in their only prior meeting with a club from France almost five decades ago, and neither are in the best shape to improve on those records.
Elfsborg have been tricky to play against here though, taking seven points from their three home games, and while Nice are much stronger on paper, they may already be checked out with progression to the knockouts almost impossible from this position.
Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nice win with a probability of 43.61%. A win for Elfsborg had a probability of 31.8% and a draw had a probability of 24.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Nice win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.08%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.78%) and 0-2 (6.92%). The likeliest Elfsborg win was 2-1 (7.55%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.51%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 7.3% likelihood.
0.12) 
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