Cardiff City host local rivals Swansea City at the Cardiff City Stadium on Sunday as the two sides battle for a place in the Championship play-offs.
Swansea made the faster start to the season and currently sit sixth in the table, but Cardiff are only four points back and know that a win will put them within a point of their arch rivals.
Match preview
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The South Wales derby is always a fiercely fought match, and Sunday's game should be no exception.
The reverse fixture in October was the first time these rivals had played each other since 2014 and on that occasion Swansea came out 1-0 winners.
However, neither side has been in the best form of late and both are at risk of losing touch with the playoff battle altogether if results do not pick up.
Cardiff lost their most recent Championship match 6-1 at the hands of Queens Park Rangers, a result that will not have pleased Neil Harris, while Swansea also lost 5-1 to QPR in the FA Cup on Sunday.
There is no doubt Steve Cooper has done a great job at Swansea since the departure of Graham Potter in the summer, but entering the home stretch in a Championship promotion chase is when he will really start to feel the pressure.
The Bluebirds formerly had a promotion specialist at the helm in Neil Warnock, and now Harris will be looking to emulate his predecessor's 2018 achievement by leading Cardiff into the top flight.
However, hile Cardiff are four points adrift of the playoffs, they are also just four points ahead of Derby County in 17th so a poor run of form could see them quickly fall down the table.
On the other hand, Swansea are only two points behind third-placed Brentford and while automatic promotion is just about beyond their reach, a win against Cardiff would be a great way to kick off the new year for Cooper and his team.
Cardiff City Championship form: LDDDWL
Cardiff City form (all competitions): DDDWLD
Swansea City Championship form: DWWLDW
Swansea City form (all competitions): WWLDWL
Team News
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Both sides come into this game with injury concerns, with the festive fixture congestion having taken its toll on each squad.
For Cardiff, they will be without Joe Ralls who is still recovering from a hand injury he picked up in training, while defender Matthew Connolly is being assessed day to day for an ankle problem.
Long-term absentees include winger Nathaniel Mendez-Laing, who is out for the season with a hamstring injury, and Isaac Vassell, who has not appeared since August because of a thigh problem.
Swansea have doubts over regular centre-back Mike van der Hoorn because of a knee injury that caused him to come off against Charlton Athletic in their last Championship fixture.
Fellow centre-back Joe Rodon is also unlikely to play because of an ankle injury, although new signing Marc Guehi could come in, while Jordan Garrick will be out until next month with a hamstring problem.
Cardiff City possible starting lineup:
Etheridge; Richards, Flint, Bamba, Bennett; Bacuna, Pack, Tomlin, Vaulks, Hoilett; Glatzel
Swansea City possible starting lineup:
Woodman; Roberts, Guehi, Cabango, Naughton; Byers, Grimes, Dhanda; Ayew, Baston, Routledge
We say: Cardiff City 2-1 Swansea City
Swansea are suffering with injuries to two of their key centre-backs and this could prove the difference in a tight match like this. Expect Harris to have a plan for how to exploit this weakness and it will be interesting to see if Cooper can respond.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a win with a probability of 41.52%. A win for had a probability of 33.86% and a draw had a probability of 24.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.86%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.39%) and 2-0 (6.47%). The likeliest win was 1-2 (7.87%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.49%).
