Second-tier Cartagena welcome La Liga heavyweights Valencia to the Estadio Municipal Cartagonova for a Copa del Rey round of 32 clash on Wednesday afternoon.
The hosts are on a good run of form and now sit eighth in the Segunda Division table, which is also where the visitors sit in the top tier after a loss on New Year's Eve.
Match preview
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Cartagena progressed through the second round of the Copa del Rey with a last-gasp 2-1 win over third-tier Castellon.
Alfredo Ortuno's opener just before the half-hour mark was cancelled out early in the second half, with the winner coming courtesy of Berto Cayarga in the 90th minute.
Efese have followed that up with two more victories in the league - 3-0 at home to Mirandes and then 1-0 away at Almeria - to move themselves within one point of the playoff spots.
With a first-ever promotion to La Liga now a possibility, there is a chance head coach Luis Carrion will be tempted to sacrifice a cup run to focus on the league.
If that is the case, Valencia become even stronger favourites for Wednesday's match, but cup football is cup football and anything can happen.
That fact was on full display during Los Che's previous Copa del Rey game, where they required extra time to progress past fourth-tier Arenteiro.
Things looked to be following the form book when Yunus Musah put the visiting La Liga side ahead after just one minute, but the hosts equalised just seven minutes later and it took until the 99th minute for Hugo Guillamon to restore Valencia's lead.
Whilst not going as smoothly as may have been expected, that win was the fourth in a run of five successive victories in all competitions as they climbed back up to eighth after a poor run of form through the autumn months.
Their winning streak came to an abrupt halt on Friday, however, when a red card late on for Hugo Duro cost his side dearly - a 1-0 lead became a 2-1 loss in the space of five minutes immediately after he was dismissed.
Jose Bordalas will hope to see his side bounce back with a win on Wednesday, and preferably one that does not require extra time.
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Team News
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The home side will be without midfielders Sergio Tejera, who is serving a suspension, and Andy Kawaya, who is set to be out until late January with a back injury.
Other than that, Carrion has a full squad to choose from and will likely stick with his favoured 4-2-3-1 setup.
Valencia will again be without the services of Gabriel Paulista due to a hamstring problem, while Hugo Duro will miss out due to the aforementioned red card.
Los Che fans will be hoping to see Dimitri Foulquier and Toni Lato return, after the game on New Year's Eve proved to have come too early for them.
Thierry Correia was able to reclaim his spot at right-back last time out and despite being substituted should feature in the starting XI once again.
Cartagena possible starting lineup:
Martinez; Delmas, Alcala, Vazquez, Silva; Bodiger, Boateng; Gallar, De Blasis, Cayarga; Castro
Valencia possible starting lineup:
Cillessen; Correia, Diakhaby, Guillamon, Gaya; Costa, Soler, Wass, Cheryshev; Guedes, Gomez
We say: Cartagena 0-2 Valencia
Whilst the hosts have been in excellent form recently, Valencia's extra quality will likely prove to be too much on this occasion. We are backing a comfortable away victory for the favourites.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cartagena win with a probability of 41.29%. A win for Valencia had a probability of 32.45% and a draw had a probability of 26.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Cartagena win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.37%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.7%) and 2-0 (7.23%). The likeliest Valencia win was 0-1 (8.97%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.49%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 7.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Valencia would win this match.
