Celta Vigo will be looking to secure their first La Liga victory since the end of December when they welcome a struggling Elche side to Vigo on Friday night.
The hosts, who occupy 10th spot in the table, will enter the match off the back of a 2-2 draw with Atletico Madrid on Monday, while Elche also picked up an impressive point at home to Villarreal in their last game.
Match preview
© Reuters
Eduardo Coudet only took charge of Celta on November 12, but the 46-year-old has already made a positive impression, winning six, drawing four and losing five of his 15 matches at the helm.
The Sky Blues were struggling towards the bottom of the table when the new head coach was appointed, but they are now up in 10th position, just four points behind seventh-placed Real Betis.
As mentioned, Celta have not won in the league since the end of December, but they have picked up draws in their last three matches, including a 2-2 with leaders Atletico on Monday night, where Facundo Ferreyra struck in the final exchanges to ensure that the points would be shared.
Los Celestes have actually finished 17th in their last two seasons at this level but will be aiming higher in 2020-21; they have only won one of their last five La Liga games with Elche, though, and the points were shared in a 1-1 draw when the two teams locked horns for the reverse match in November.
© Reuters
Like Celta, Elche will also enter this match off the back of a positive result, having held a talented Villarreal team to a 2-2 draw on Saturday; the Yellow Submarine actually led 2-0 at the interval, only for Guido Carrillo and Lucas Boye to score in the second half as the points were shared.
Los Franjiverdes have won just three of their 20 league matches this season to sit down in 19th position in the table, two points behind 17th-placed Eibar with two games in hand.
The fact that Elche, who face Eibar in their next fixture, have two matches spare over the teams around them could prove decisive, but they have not won in Spain's top flight since October 23.
Jorge Almiron's side still have plenty of time to escape danger, though, and two of their three league victories this season have come on their travels, overcoming Alaves and Eibar in the early stages of the campaign.
Celta Vigo La Liga form: LLLDDD
Celta Vigo form (all competitions): LLLDDD
Elche La Liga form: LLDLLD
Elche form (all competitions): LLDLLD
Team News
© Reuters
Celta will again be without the services of David Junca and Sergio Alvarez through injury, but the home side are otherwise in good shape heading into Friday's encounter.
Coudet's side picked up an impressive result against Atletico last time out, and it would not be a surprise to see the manager send the exact same XI onto the field for this game.
Ferreyra came off the bench to score the leveller against Diego Simeone's side, but the Argentine is unlikely to be given the nod over Santi Mina or Iago Aspas, while Fran Beltran might have to accept a spot on the bench once again with Denis Suarez set to continue alongside Renato Tapia in a central area.
As for Elche, Gerard Barri is still recovering from a knee injury, but the strugglers are otherwise in excellent shape and will be able to recall three key players if required.
Indeed, Antonio Barragan, Gonzalo Verdu and Tete Morente all served one-game suspensions against Villarreal and are now available, but the performance on Saturday means that Almiron could decide to stick with the side that featured last time out.
Verdu is likely to return in the middle of the defence, but Josan Fernandez and Emiliano Rigoni could keep their spots in the wide areas, with Boye and Carrillo featuring through the middle.
Celta Vigo possible starting lineup:
Blanco; Mallo, Murillo, Araujo, Martin; Mendez, Tapia, Nolito; Suarez; Mina, Aspas
Elche possible starting lineup:
Badia; Cifuentes, Verdu, Gonzalez, Mojica; Josan, Marcone, Guti, Rigoni; Boye, Carrillo
We say: Celta Vigo 1-0 Elche
Celta are still waiting for their first league win of 2021, but we expect the run to come to an end on Friday night. Elche can be encouraged by their display against Villarreal last time out, but the home side were excellent against Atletico and should have enough to secure an important three points here.
Top betting tip
Matt Law
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Celta Vigo win with a probability of 46.11%. A win for Elche had a probability of 27.48% and a draw had a probability of 26.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Celta Vigo win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.93%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.04%) and 2-0 (8.61%). The likeliest Elche win was 0-1 (8.68%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.52%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Celta Vigo would win this match.
