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Champions League
Champions League | Third Qualifying Round | 2nd Leg
Aug 15, 2023 at 7pm UK
Gradski stadion
Braga

Backa Topola
1 - 4
Braga

Rakonjac (40')
Dordevic (22'), Pantovic (47')
FT(HT: 1-4)
Pizzi (8'), Bruma (12'), Djalo (16'), Elmusrati (20')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's Champions League clash between Backa Topola and Braga, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Backa Topola

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Last Game: Braga 3-0 Backa Topola
Tuesday, August 8 at 8pm in Champions League
:no data 356|l|156:DIVision:.!d!.:Sport:1:

Braga

All competitions
Champions League
Last Game: Braga 1-2 Famalicao
Friday, August 11 at 8.15pm in Primeira Liga

We said: Backa Topola 0-2 Braga (Braga win 5-0 on aggregate)

 Even with a few alterations anticipated on Braga's end, the Portuguese powerhouses proved too strong for Backa Topola in the first leg, which should again be the case at the TSC Arena. The margin of victory may not be as emphatic some 1,800 miles away from home, but Jorge's rejigged side should have no problem notching another couple of goals en route to the playoff round. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Braga win with a probability of 52.34%. A win for Backa Topola had a probability of 23.97% and a draw had a probability of 23.7%.

The most likely scoreline for a Braga win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.2%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.73%) and 0-2 (8.86%). The likeliest Backa Topola win was 1-0 (6.45%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.19%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 2.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Braga would win this match.

Result
Backa TopolaDrawBraga
23.97% (0.053999999999998 0.05) 23.69% (0.02 0.02) 52.34% (-0.069999999999993 -0.07)
Both teams to score 54.91% (-0.0060000000000002 -0.01)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
53.88% (-0.035000000000004 -0.04)46.11% (0.039999999999999 0.04)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
31.58% (-0.035 -0.04)68.42% (0.039000000000001 0.04)
Backa Topola Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
66.64% (0.025000000000006 0.03)33.36% (-0.021000000000001 -0.02)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
30.02% (0.028000000000002 0.03)69.98% (-0.024000000000001 -0.02)
Braga Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
82.4% (-0.036999999999992 -0.04)17.6% (0.042000000000002 0.04)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
51.82% (-0.067999999999998 -0.07)48.18% (0.073 0.07)
Score Analysis
    Backa Topola 23.97%
    Braga 52.34%
    Draw 23.68%
Backa TopolaDrawBraga
1-0 @ 6.45% (0.015 0.01)
2-1 @ 6.15% (0.010000000000001 0.01)
2-0 @ 3.54% (0.0099999999999998 0.01)
3-1 @ 2.25% (0.0049999999999999 0)
3-2 @ 1.95% (0.002 0)
3-0 @ 1.3% (0.0049999999999999 0)
Other @ 2.34%
Total : 23.97%
1-1 @ 11.19% (0.0099999999999998 0.01)
0-0 @ 5.87% (0.0099999999999998 0.01)
2-2 @ 5.34% (0.0010000000000003 0)
3-3 @ 1.13% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
Other @ 0.15%
Total : 23.68%
0-1 @ 10.2% (0.0099999999999998 0.01)
1-2 @ 9.73% (-0.0039999999999996 -0)
0-2 @ 8.86% (-0.0090000000000003 -0.01)
1-3 @ 5.63% (-0.010000000000001 -0.01)
0-3 @ 5.13% (-0.012 -0.01)
2-3 @ 3.09% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
1-4 @ 2.45% (-0.008 -0.01)
0-4 @ 2.23% (-0.008 -0.01)
2-4 @ 1.34% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
Other @ 3.68%
Total : 52.34%

How you voted: Backa Topola vs Braga

Backa Topola
8.3%
Draw
8.3%
Braga
83.3%
24
Head to Head
Aug 8, 2023 8pm
Third Qualifying Round 1st Leg
Braga
3-0
Backa Topola
Bruma (17'), Pizzi (19'), Djalo (87')
Elmusrati (74')

Dordevic (4'), Petrovic (43')
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