Champions League | Third Qualifying Round | 1st Leg
Aug 8, 2023 at 8pm UK
Estadio Municipal de Braga
Braga3 - 0Backa Topola
Form, Standings, Stats
Last Game: Roma 1-1 Braga
Wednesday, July 26 at 8pm in Club Friendlies 1
Wednesday, July 26 at 8pm in Club Friendlies 1
Last Game: Backa Topola 6-6 FCSB (4-5 pen.)
Thursday, September 17 at 8pm in Europa League
Thursday, September 17 at 8pm in Europa League
We said: Braga 3-1 Backa Topola
The hosts come into the match as huge favourites and have arguably got the best draw of the round against the tournament debutants. We fancy Braga to secure a commanding lead in this first-leg encounter, though we also expect the visitors to get on the scoresheet. Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Braga win with a probability of 70.17%. A draw had a probability of 18% and a win for Backa Topola had a probability of 11.81%.
The most likely scoreline for a Braga win was 2-0 with a probability of 12.03%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (10.73%) and 2-1 (9.59%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.55%), while for a Backa Topola win it was 0-1 (3.81%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with an 9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Braga would win this match.
Result | ||
Braga | Draw | Backa Topola |
70.17% ( 0.01) | 18.01% | 11.81% ( -0.01) |
Both teams to score 49.1% ( -0.02) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
58.56% ( -0.01) | 41.43% ( 0.01) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
36.17% ( -0.01) | 63.83% ( 0.01) |
Braga Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
89.38% ( 0) | 10.62% ( 0) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
65.57% | 34.43% ( 0) |
Backa Topola Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
54.94% ( -0.02) | 45.06% ( 0.02) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
19.02% ( -0.01) | 80.98% ( 0.02) |
Score Analysis |
Braga 70.17%
Backa Topola 11.81%
Draw 18.01%
Braga | Draw | Backa Topola |
2-0 @ 12.03% ( 0.01) 1-0 @ 10.73% ( 0.01) 2-1 @ 9.59% ( -0) 3-0 @ 8.99% ( 0) 3-1 @ 7.17% ( -0) 4-0 @ 5.04% ( 0) 4-1 @ 4.02% 3-2 @ 2.86% ( -0) 5-0 @ 2.26% ( 0) 5-1 @ 1.8% 4-2 @ 1.6% ( -0) Other @ 4.07% Total : 70.17% | 1-1 @ 8.55% 0-0 @ 4.79% ( 0) 2-2 @ 3.82% ( -0) Other @ 0.85% Total : 18.01% | 0-1 @ 3.81% 1-2 @ 3.41% ( -0) 0-2 @ 1.52% ( -0) 2-3 @ 1.02% ( -0) 1-3 @ 0.91% ( -0) Other @ 1.15% Total : 11.81% |
How you voted: Braga vs Backa Topola
Braga
90.0%Draw
7.5%Backa Topola
2.5%40
Form Guide
rhs 2.0
LT: 2024-06-28 14:59:04
Saturday, June 29
5pm
Round of 16
Switzerland
vs.
Italy
8pm
Round of 16
Germany
vs.
Denmark
Sunday, June 30
5pm
Round of 16
England
vs.
Slovakia
8pm
Round of 16
Spain
vs.
Georgia
Monday, July 1
5pm
Round of 16
France
vs.
Belgium
8pm
Round of 16
Portugal
vs.
Slovenia
Tuesday, July 2
5pm
Round of 16
Romania
vs.
Netherlands
8pm
Round of 16
Austria
vs.
Turkey
Friday, July 5
5pm
Quarter-Finals
Winner Match 39
vs.
Winner Match 37
8pm
Quarter-Finals
Winner Match 41
vs.
Winner Match 42
Saturday, July 6
5pm
Quarter-Finals
Winner Match 40
vs.
Winner Match 38
8pm
Quarter-Finals
Winner Match 43
vs.
Winner Match 44
Tuesday, July 9
8pm
Wednesday, July 10
8pm
Sunday, July 14
8pm
Group A
Team | P | W | D | L | PTS | |
Q | Germany | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
Q | Switzerland | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
3 | Hungary | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
4 | Scotland | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
Group D
Team | P | W | D | L | PTS | |
Q | Austria | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
Q | France | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
Q | Netherlands | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
4 | Poland | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
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