Champions League | First Qualifying Round | 1st Leg
Jul 10, 2024 at 5pm UK
Sportland Arena, Tallinn
Flora0 - 5Celje
Hussar (37'), Jonne Tougjas (44')
FT(HT: 0-3)
Form, Standings, Stats
Last Game: Radomlje 1-1 Celje
Saturday, May 18 at 2pm in Slovenian PrvaLiga
Saturday, May 18 at 2pm in Slovenian PrvaLiga
We said: Flora 1-2 Celje
Celje have won two of their previous three European away matches, and we think that they will draw upon those successes to beat a Flora side who have lost each of their last four matches in Champions League qualifying. Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Celje win with a probability of 38.32%. A win for Flora had a probability of 38.28% and a draw had a probability of 23.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Celje win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.35%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (6.49%) and 0-2 (5.2%). The likeliest Flora win was 2-1 (8.34%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.4%). The actual scoreline of 0-5 was predicted with a 0.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Celje would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Flora | Draw | Celje |
38.28% ( 0.12) | 23.39% ( -0.03) | 38.32% ( -0.1) |
| Both teams to score 63.83% ( 0.11) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 62.18% ( 0.14) | 37.82% ( -0.15) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 39.93% ( 0.15) | 60.07% ( -0.16) |
| Flora Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 79.88% ( 0.12) | 20.11% ( -0.12) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 47.62% ( 0.19) | 52.37% ( -0.2) |
| Celje Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 79.9% ( 0.01) | 20.1% ( -0.02) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 47.65% ( 0.03) | 52.34% ( -0.03) |
| Score Analysis |
Flora 38.28%
Celje 38.32%
Draw 23.39%
| Flora | Draw | Celje |
| 2-1 @ 8.34% ( 0.01) 1-0 @ 6.48% ( -0.02)2-0 @ 5.2% ( 0)3-1 @ 4.46% ( 0.02)3-2 @ 3.58% ( 0.02)3-0 @ 2.78% ( 0.01)4-1 @ 1.79% ( 0.02)4-2 @ 1.43% ( 0.01)4-0 @ 1.11% ( 0.01)Other @ 3.11% Total : 38.28% | 1-1 @ 10.4% ( -0.03) 2-2 @ 6.69% ( 0.01)0-0 @ 4.04% ( -0.03)3-3 @ 1.91% ( 0.01)Other @ 0.34% Total : 23.39% | 1-2 @ 8.35% ( -0.02) 0-1 @ 6.49% ( -0.04)0-2 @ 5.2% ( -0.03)1-3 @ 4.46% ( -0.01)2-3 @ 3.58% ( 0.01)0-3 @ 2.78% ( -0.02)1-4 @ 1.79% ( -0)2-4 @ 1.44% ( 0)0-4 @ 1.12% ( -0.01)Other @ 3.11% Total : 38.32% |
How you voted: Flora vs Celje
Flora
16.7%Draw
22.2%Celje
61.1%36
