On Saturday, Charlotte FC and Inter Miami will meet for the first time in Major League Soccer at Bank of America Stadium in North Carolina.
The Crown are winless in their last three domestic affairs, while the Herons saw a four-match winning run in all competitions come to an end in their previous encounter, losing 2-0 to the New England Revolution.
Match preview
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Charlotte remained without a point away from home this season after dropping a 2-1 decision to Orlando City a week ago.
That marked the third time in 2022 that CLTFC had fallen on the road by that exact score, losing every game this year in which they have conceded first.
On their current winless drought, manager Miguel Angel Ramirez has noted that his players are lacking accuracy and precision in the final third, while also struggling to defend the extra bodies that are thrown into their penalty area.
Three of their next four MLS contests will occur in the Tar Heel State, where Charlotte have looked a lot more compact at the back, posting consecutive clean sheets at Bank of America Stadium.
Ramirez has not been pleased with the way in which his team have handled set pieces, particularly against Orlando, seemingly a step behind them and often out of position.
Over the weekend, they found themselves far too deep in the Lions' penalty area on a corner kick late in the opening half, leaving their goalkeeper hung out to dry for the second goal, which ultimately cost them the game.
When this team can put away their chances early, they are a tough team to contend with, scoring the opener with fewer than 15 minutes gone in their previous three home fixtures, winning every time.
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From virtually the opening whistle on Saturday, Miami found themselves behind the eight-ball as an errant pass from goalkeeper Nick Marsman gave the Revs a clear-cut opportunity in the opening minute, which Damian Rivera buried.
It was an uphill battle for Phil Neville and his side throughout the 90 minutes, managing only 33% possession in the defeat, dropping down to 12th in the Eastern Conference.
The Herons suffered not only on the scoreboard but physically as well with two players being sent off in the second half, while their leading goalscorer was substituted after 12 minutes with a knock.
To only lose by a 2-0 score with everything seemingly against them speaks volumes to how hard this team have worked over the past few weeks to prove that they belong in the playoff picture in the Eastern Conference.
This year, Miami have conceded multiple goals in all but one road fixture, though they are in the thick of the playoff race, trailing Atlanta United for that final spot by a single point.
Every time Miami have trailed at the half in 2022, they have lost, while their three victories all came when leading after 45 minutes.
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Team News
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Charlotte have acquired forward Andre Shinyashiki in a deal with the Colorado Rapids, as the Crown gave up $400,000 in General Allocation Money and a 50% trade fee for the Brazilian.
Vinicius Mello is still out after undergoing left foot surgery, Chris Hegardt has a left knee issue and Joseph Mora will likely be sidelined due to health and safety protocols.
Yordy Reyna has a lower leg issue, while Adam Armour continues to nurse a knee injury and is expected to be out for the long term.
Christian Fuchs scored his first goal for Charlotte in their defeat to Orlando, moving him into a tie for second on the team behind Karol Swiderski, who has four, while Guzman Corujo is proving to be invaluable at the back, currently sitting fourth in MLS when it comes to interceptions (21).
Damion Lowe and Jairo Quinteros were both sent off for Inter Miami in their defeat to New England last weekend, while leading goalscorer Leonardo Campana was substituted in the 12th minute with tightness in his leg and Aime Mabika limped off in the 20th minute with a muscle injury.
That adds to the long list of Miami players currently on the sidelines, including Ian Fray, Joevin Jones, Robbie Robinson, Ryan Sailor and Edison Azcona, who all missed their match last weekend with undisclosed injuries.
Neville made two changes to his starting 11 versus the Revs, as Bryce Duke and Gregore replaced Mo Adams and Robbie Robinson.
Miami are bringing back a familiar face, acquiring Indiana Vassilev for the remainder of the campaign, on loan from Aston Villa.
Charlotte FC possible starting lineup:
Kahlina; Fuchs, Makoun, Corujo, Lindsey; Bronico; Alcivar, Bender; Ortiz; Gaines, Swiderski
Inter Miami possible starting lineup:
Marsman; McVey, Gibbs, Allen, Yedlin; Mota; Taylor, Adams, Gregore, Lassiter; Higuain
We say: Charlotte FC 2-0 Inter Miami
Both teams have been hot and cold up to this point of the 2022 campaign, but Charlotte are a little healthier at the moment, and they tend to play a more well-rounded game in front of their home fans, which should be enough to earn them three points in this one.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Charlotte FC win with a probability of 48.33%. A draw had a probability of 25.9% and a win for Inter Miami had a probability of 25.78%.
The most likely scoreline for a Charlotte FC win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.99%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.25%) and 2-0 (9.02%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.28%), while for a Inter Miami win it was 0-1 (8.17%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 12% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Charlotte FC in this match and our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted the win for Charlotte FC.
