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Philadelphia Union
CONCACAF Champions League | Semi-Finals | 1st Leg
Apr 27, 2023 at 2am UK
Subaru Park
Los Angeles FC

Philadelphia
1 - 1
Los Angeles

Gazdag (86' pen.)
Andres Martinez (63')
FT(HT: 0-0)
Acosta (90+1')
Acosta (84')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's CONCACAF Champions League clash between Philadelphia Union and Los Angeles FC, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Philadelphia Union

All competitions
Last Game: Philadelphia 4-2 Toronto
Sunday, April 23 at 12.30am in Major League Soccer

Los Angeles FC

All competitions
Last Game: Nashville 1-1 Los Angeles
Sunday, April 23 at 1.30am in Major League Soccer

We said: Philadelphia Union 1-0 Los Angeles FC

 If there is a team that can slow down the balanced LA attack, Philly might be the best bet, and they seem to be peaking at the right time, while showing lots of attacking quality at the moment. Just like in that epic MLS Cup final a year ago, this tie could go down to the wire, but home field and momentum may favour the Union in the opening leg, a team that have faced much stiffer challenges in the CCL this season when compared to the Black and Gold. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Philadelphia Union win with a probability of 41.07%. A win for Los Angeles FC had a probability of 33.6% and a draw had a probability of 25.3%.

The most likely scoreline for a Philadelphia Union win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.18%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.79%) and 2-0 (6.74%). The likeliest Los Angeles FC win was 0-1 (8.15%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.97%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 12% likelihood.

Result
Philadelphia UnionDrawLos Angeles FC
41.07% (0.188 0.19) 25.33% (0.126 0.13) 33.6% (-0.313 -0.31)
Both teams to score 56.08% (-0.52 -0.52)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
52.39% (-0.638 -0.64)47.61% (0.636 0.64)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
30.19% (-0.592 -0.59)69.81% (0.592 0.59)
Philadelphia Union Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
76.97% (-0.18600000000001 -0.19)23.03% (0.187 0.19)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
43.15% (-0.27399999999999 -0.27)56.85% (0.274 0.27)
Los Angeles FC Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
72.86% (-0.497 -0.5)27.14% (0.497 0.5)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
37.46% (-0.654 -0.65)62.54% (0.653 0.65)
Score Analysis
    Philadelphia Union 41.07%
    Los Angeles FC 33.6%
    Draw 25.33%
Philadelphia UnionDrawLos Angeles FC
1-0 @ 9.18% (0.191 0.19)
2-1 @ 8.79% (0.014000000000001 0.01)
2-0 @ 6.74% (0.105 0.11)
3-1 @ 4.3% (-0.016999999999999 -0.02)
3-0 @ 3.3% (0.033 0.03)
3-2 @ 2.8% (-0.051 -0.05)
4-1 @ 1.58% (-0.015 -0.02)
4-0 @ 1.21% (0.006 0.01)
4-2 @ 1.03% (-0.025 -0.03)
Other @ 2.14%
Total : 41.07%
1-1 @ 11.97% (0.09 0.09)
0-0 @ 6.25% (0.164 0.16)
2-2 @ 5.73% (-0.071999999999999 -0.07)
3-3 @ 1.22% (-0.04 -0.04)
Other @ 0.16%
Total : 25.33%
0-1 @ 8.15% (0.102 0.1)
1-2 @ 7.81% (-0.055000000000001 -0.06)
0-2 @ 5.32% (-0.008 -0.01)
1-3 @ 3.39% (-0.072 -0.07)
2-3 @ 2.49% (-0.067 -0.07)
0-3 @ 2.31% (-0.036 -0.04)
1-4 @ 1.11% (-0.04 -0.04)
Other @ 3.03%
Total : 33.6%

How you voted: Philadelphia vs Los Angeles

Philadelphia Union
60.0%
Draw
5.0%
Los Angeles FC
35.0%
20
Head to Head
Nov 5, 2022 8pm
Los Angeles
3-3
Philadelphia
 Los Angeles win 3-0 on penalties
Acosta (27'), Murillo (83'), Bale (120+8')
Cifuentes (65')
Gazdag (59'), Elliott (85', 120+4')
May 8, 2022 4am
Los Angeles
2-2
Philadelphia
Opoku (56'), Escobar (82')
Palacios (76')
Gazdag (9'), Carranza (67')
Santos (83'), Elliott (90+4')
Mar 9, 2020 2.30am
gameweek 4
Los Angeles
3-3
Philadelphia
Vela (38'), Rossi (49'), Segura (71')
Palacios (45+2')
Santos (29'), Glesnes (48'), Aaronson (69')
Gaddis (33'), Andres Martinez (43'), Bedoya (45+4'), Fontana (90+6')
Sep 15, 2019 12.30am
gameweek 36
Philadelphia
1-1
Los Angeles
Przybylko (3')
Vela (43')
Kaye (65'), Blessing (78'), Harvey (88'), Zimmerman (89')
Jul 1, 2018 1am
gameweek 20
Los Angeles
4-1
Philadelphia
Diomande (25', 43', 55'), Blessing (96')
Beitashour (39'), Nguyen (85')
Picault (45')
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