Copa Libertadores

Copa Libertadores | Group Stage

Apr 25, 2024 at 1.30am UK

Estadio Banco Guayaquil

Independiente
2 - 3
Palmeiras

Paez (12'), Hoyos (38')
Hoyos (16'), Ortiz (74'), Caicedo (76')

FT(HT: 2-1)

Endrick (45+2'), Lazaro (81'), Guilherme (90+5')
Vanderlan (80'), Rios (90+1')

Data Analysis

Lineups

Coverage of the Copa Libertadores Group Stage clash between Independiente del Valle and Palmeiras.

Form, Standings, Stats

Independiente del Valle

Last Game: Independiente 2-0 San Lorenzo
Wednesday, April 10 at 11pm in Copa Libertadores

Palmeiras

All competitions

Copa Libertadores

Last Game: Palmeiras 0-0 Flamengo
Sunday, April 21 at 8pm in Brasileiro

Goals
for

Top scorers

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Independiente del Valle win with a probability of 36.71%. A win for Palmeiras had a probability of 36.34% and a draw had a probability of 27%.

The most likely scoreline for a Independiente del Valle win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.24%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.05%) and 2-0 (6.44%). The likeliest Palmeiras win was 0-1 (10.17%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.8%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 2.1% likelihood.

Result
Independiente del Valle	Draw	Palmeiras
36.71% ( 0.23)	26.95% ( 0.04)	36.34% ( -0.27)

Both teams to score 51.08% (

-0.14)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

45.83% (

-0.18)

54.17% (

0.18)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

24.42% (

-0.15)

75.58% (

0.15)

Independiente del Valle Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

71.58% (

0.05)

28.42% (

-0.05)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

35.82% (

0.06)

64.18% (

-0.06)

Palmeiras Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

71.36% (

-0.25)

28.64% (

0.25)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

35.55% (

-0.31)

64.45% (

0.31)

Score Analysis

Independiente del Valle 36.7%

Palmeiras 36.33%

Draw 26.95%

Independiente del Valle	Draw	Palmeiras
1-0 @ 10.24% ( 0.09) 2-1 @ 8.05% ( 0.02) 2-0 @ 6.44% ( 0.06) 3-1 @ 3.38% ( 0.01) 3-0 @ 2.7% ( 0.03) 3-2 @ 2.11% ( -0.01) 4-1 @ 1.06% ( 0.01) Other @ 2.72% Total : 36.7%	1-1 @ 12.8% ( 0.02) 0-0 @ 8.14% ( 0.06) 2-2 @ 5.04% ( -0.02) Other @ 0.97% Total : 26.95%	0-1 @ 10.17% 1-2 @ 8.01% ( -0.04) 0-2 @ 6.36% ( -0.04) 1-3 @ 3.34% ( -0.04) 0-3 @ 2.65% ( -0.04) 2-3 @ 2.1% ( -0.02) 1-4 @ 1.04% ( -0.02) Other @ 2.67% Total : 36.33%