Given a distinct shortage of goals for Monagas this season, the plucky side from Maturin are set to drop out of the Copa Libertadores at its group stage following defeat in Buenos Aires. Even if they make a number of changes, Boca Juniors boast more nous at continental level and will have a point to prove following an embarrassing loss last week. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Boca Juniors win with a probability of 66.33%. A draw had a probability of 20.9% and a win for Monagas had a probability of 12.74%.

The most likely scoreline for a Boca Juniors win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.09%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (13.48%) and 2-1 (9.37%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.79%), while for a Monagas win it was 0-1 (5.12%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 4.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Boca Juniors would win this match.

Result
Boca Juniors	Draw	Monagas
66.33% ( 0.03)	20.93% ( 0)	12.74% ( -0.03)

Both teams to score 42.69% (

-0.11)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

48.37% (

-0.1)

51.63% (

0.1)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

26.59% (

-0.09)

73.41% (

0.09)

Boca Juniors Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

85.25% (

-0.02)

14.75% (

0.02)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

57.02% (

-0.04)

42.98% (

0.04)

Monagas Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

50.07% (

-0.12)

49.92% (

0.12)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

15.39% (

-0.08)

84.6% (

0.09)

Score Analysis

Boca Juniors 66.32%

Monagas 12.74%

Draw 20.93%

Boca Juniors	Draw	Monagas
1-0 @ 14.09% ( 0.05) 2-0 @ 13.48% ( 0.03) 2-1 @ 9.37% ( -0.01) 3-0 @ 8.61% ( 0.02) 3-1 @ 5.98% ( -0.01) 4-0 @ 4.12% ( 0) 4-1 @ 2.86% ( -0.01) 3-2 @ 2.08% ( -0.01) 5-0 @ 1.58% 5-1 @ 1.1% ( -0) 4-2 @ 0.99% ( -0.01) Other @ 2.08% Total : 66.32%	1-1 @ 9.79% ( -0) 0-0 @ 7.36% ( 0.03) 2-2 @ 3.25% ( -0.02) Other @ 0.52% Total : 20.93%	0-1 @ 5.12% ( 0) 1-2 @ 3.4% ( -0.01) 0-2 @ 1.78% ( -0.01) Other @ 2.45% Total : 12.74%