Copa Sudamericana | Group Stage

May 10, 2024 at 3am UK

Estadio Inca Garcilaso de la Vega

Deportivo Garcilaso
0 - 2
Lanus

Caicedo (50'), Ugarriza (58'), Gomez (90')

FT(HT: 0-1)

Bou (7'), Moreno (54')
Aguerre (37'), Acosta (45'), Moreno (55'), Loaiza (67'), Bou (80')

Data Analysis

Lineups

Coverage of the Copa Sudamericana Group Stage clash between Deportivo Garcilaso and Lanus.

Form, Standings, Stats

Deportivo Garcilaso

Last Game: Deportivo Garcilaso 1-1 Cuiaba
Wednesday, April 24 at 1am in Copa Sudamericana

Lanus

All competitions

Copa Sudamericana

Last Game: Metropolitanos 0-2 Lanus
Thursday, April 25 at 11pm in Copa Sudamericana

Goals
for

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lanus win with a probability of 36.51%. A win for Deportivo Garcilaso had a probability of 35.55% and a draw had a probability of 27.9%.

The most likely scoreline for a Lanus win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.23%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.82%) and 0-2 (6.68%). The likeliest Deportivo Garcilaso win was 1-0 (11.05%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.14%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 6.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Lanus would win this match.

Result
Deportivo Garcilaso	Draw	Lanus
35.55% ( 0.21)	27.94% ( 0.01)	36.51% ( -0.22)

Both teams to score 47.97% (

-0.02)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

41.97% (

-0.03)

58.03% (

0.03)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

21.29% (

-0.03)

78.71% (

0.02)

Deportivo Garcilaso Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

68.96% (

0.12)

31.04% (

-0.12)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

32.65% (

0.14)

67.35% (

-0.14)

Lanus Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

69.56% (

-0.16)

30.44% (

0.15)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

33.36% (

-0.18)

66.64% (

0.18)

Score Analysis

Deportivo Garcilaso 35.55%

Lanus 36.5%

Draw 27.93%

Deportivo Garcilaso	Draw	Lanus
1-0 @ 11.05% ( 0.05) 2-1 @ 7.69% ( 0.03) 2-0 @ 6.47% ( 0.05) 3-1 @ 3% ( 0.02) 3-0 @ 2.52% ( 0.03) 3-2 @ 1.78% ( 0.01) Other @ 3.04% Total : 35.55%	1-1 @ 13.14% 0-0 @ 9.45% ( 0.01) 2-2 @ 4.58% ( -0) Other @ 0.77% Total : 27.93%	0-1 @ 11.23% ( -0.04) 1-2 @ 7.82% ( -0.03) 0-2 @ 6.68% ( -0.05) 1-3 @ 3.1% ( -0.02) 0-3 @ 2.65% ( -0.03) 2-3 @ 1.81% ( -0.01) 1-4 @ 0.92% ( -0.01) Other @ 2.28% Total : 36.5%