Copa Sudamericana | Semi-Finals | 2nd Leg
Sep 8, 2022 at 1.30am UK
Estadio Melgar
Melgar0 - 3Independiente
Form, Standings, Stats
Last Game: Independiente 3-0 Melgar
Thursday, September 1 at 1.30am in Copa Sudamericana
Thursday, September 1 at 1.30am in Copa Sudamericana
We said: Melgar 1-2 Independiente del Valle (Independiente del Valle advances 5-1 on aggregate)
Experience seemed to be a significant advantage for the Ecuadorians in the opening leg, and while Melgar have been potent at times on home soil, we are backing the visitors to advance as they have rarely played poor defensively of late. Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Melgar win with a probability of 55.63%. A draw had a probability of 23.2% and a win for Independiente del Valle had a probability of 21.17%.
The most likely scoreline for a Melgar win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.92%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.84%) and 2-0 (9.76%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.01%), while for a Independiente del Valle win it was 0-1 (6.17%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Independiente del Valle would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Melgar | Draw | Independiente del Valle |
55.63% ( 0.02) | 23.2% ( -0.01) | 21.17% ( -0.01) |
| Both teams to score 52.86% ( 0.01) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 52.91% ( 0.02) | 47.09% ( -0.02) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 30.67% ( 0.02) | 69.33% ( -0.02) |
| Melgar Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 83.24% ( 0.02) | 16.77% ( -0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 53.3% ( 0.03) | 46.71% ( -0.03) |
| Independiente del Valle Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 63.51% ( -0) | 36.49% ( 0) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 26.73% ( -0) | 73.28% ( 0) |
| Score Analysis |
Melgar 55.62%
Independiente del Valle 21.17%
Draw 23.2%
| Melgar | Draw | Independiente del Valle |
| 1-0 @ 10.92% 2-1 @ 9.84% ( 0)2-0 @ 9.76% ( 0)3-1 @ 5.85% ( 0)3-0 @ 5.81% ( 0)3-2 @ 2.95% ( 0)4-1 @ 2.61% ( 0)4-0 @ 2.59% ( 0)4-2 @ 1.32% ( 0)5-1 @ 0.93% ( 0)5-0 @ 0.93% ( 0)Other @ 2.12% Total : 55.62% | 1-1 @ 11.01% 0-0 @ 6.12% ( -0)2-2 @ 4.96% ( 0)3-3 @ 0.99% ( 0)Other @ 0.12% Total : 23.2% | 0-1 @ 6.17% ( -0) 1-2 @ 5.55% ( -0)0-2 @ 3.11% ( -0)1-3 @ 1.87% ( -0)2-3 @ 1.67% 0-3 @ 1.05% ( -0)Other @ 1.77% Total : 21.17% |
How you voted: Melgar vs Independiente
Melgar
0.0%Draw
63.6%Independiente del Valle
36.4%11
Head to Head
Sep 1, 2022 1.30am
Form Guide
