Independiente will look to pick up where they dropped off against an opposing side who have managed just one win in seven away games across all competitions. We are backing Anselmi's men to make use of their home advantage and claim a second-leg victory. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Independiente del Valle win with a probability of 53.16%. A draw had a probability of 26% and a win for Deportivo Tachira had a probability of 20.88%.

The most likely scoreline for a Independiente del Valle win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.3%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.85%) and 2-1 (9.17%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.07%), while for a Deportivo Tachira win it was 0-1 (7.95%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 1.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Independiente del Valle would win this match.

Result
Independiente del Valle	Draw	Deportivo Tachira
53.16% ( 0.25)	25.95% ( -0.17)	20.88% ( -0.08)

Both teams to score 44.51% (

0.34)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

42.05% (

0.51)

57.95% (

-0.51)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

21.35% (

0.4)

78.65% (

-0.4)

Independiente del Valle Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

78.1% (

0.32)

21.9% (

-0.31)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

44.84% (

0.48)

55.16% (

-0.48)

Deportivo Tachira Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

57% (

0.21)

43% (

-0.21)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

20.71% (

0.18)

79.29% (

-0.18)

Score Analysis

Independiente del Valle 53.15%

Deportivo Tachira 20.88%

Draw 25.95%

Independiente del Valle	Draw	Deportivo Tachira
1-0 @ 14.3% ( -0.14) 2-0 @ 10.85% ( -0.01) 2-1 @ 9.17% ( 0.05) 3-0 @ 5.5% ( 0.05) 3-1 @ 4.64% ( 0.07) 4-0 @ 2.09% ( 0.04) 3-2 @ 1.96% ( 0.04) 4-1 @ 1.76% ( 0.04) Other @ 2.89% Total : 53.15%	1-1 @ 12.07% ( -0.04) 0-0 @ 9.42% ( -0.18) 2-2 @ 3.87% ( 0.04) Other @ 0.6% Total : 25.95%	0-1 @ 7.95% ( -0.11) 1-2 @ 5.09% ( 0.01) 0-2 @ 3.35% ( -0.03) 1-3 @ 1.43% ( 0.01) 2-3 @ 1.09% ( 0.02) 0-3 @ 0.94% ( -0) Other @ 1.02% Total : 20.88%