Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Athletico Paranaense win with a probability of 60.2%. A draw had a probability of 23.2% and a win for Sportivo Ameliano had a probability of 16.64%.

The most likely scoreline for an Athletico Paranaense win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.71%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (12.02%) and 1-2 (9.56%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.9%), while for a Sportivo Ameliano win it was 1-0 (6.22%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 2.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Athletico Paranaense would win this match.

Result
Sportivo Ameliano	Draw	Athletico Paranaense
16.64% ( 1.25)	23.17% ( 0.19)	60.2% ( -1.43)

Both teams to score 45.33% (

1.98)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

46.84% (

1.26)

53.16% (

-1.25)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

25.27% (

1.06)

74.73% (

-1.06)

Sportivo Ameliano Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

54.83% (

2.43)

45.17% (

-2.43)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

18.93% (

1.87)

81.07% (

-1.87)

Athletico Paranaense Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

82.68% (

-0.06)

17.32% (

0.06)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

52.31% (

-0.1)

47.69% (

0.1)

Score Analysis

Sportivo Ameliano 16.64%

Athletico Paranaense 60.18%

Draw 23.16%

Sportivo Ameliano	Draw	Athletico Paranaense
1-0 @ 6.22% ( 0.12) 2-1 @ 4.33% ( 0.36) 2-0 @ 2.47% ( 0.21) 3-1 @ 1.15% ( 0.16) 3-2 @ 1.01% ( 0.14) Other @ 1.46% Total : 16.64%	1-1 @ 10.9% ( 0.19) 0-0 @ 7.83% ( -0.39) 2-2 @ 3.8% ( 0.3) Other @ 0.64% Total : 23.16%	0-1 @ 13.71% ( -0.72) 0-2 @ 12.02% ( -0.65) 1-2 @ 9.56% ( 0.15) 0-3 @ 7.03% ( -0.4) 1-3 @ 5.59% ( 0.08) 0-4 @ 3.08% ( -0.18) 1-4 @ 2.45% ( 0.03) 2-3 @ 2.22% ( 0.17) 0-5 @ 1.08% ( -0.07) 2-4 @ 0.97% ( 0.08) Other @ 2.48% Total : 60.18%