Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Velez Sarsfield win with a probability of 46.87%. A draw had a probability of 29.2% and a win for Sarmiento had a probability of 23.95%.
The most likely scoreline for a Velez Sarsfield win was 0-1 with a probability of 15.88%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (10%) and 1-2 (8.11%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.88%), while for a Sarmiento win it was 1-0 (10.22%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 15.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 0-1 win for Velez Sarsfield in this match.
