Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Zambia win with a probability of 45.23%. A win for Botswana had a probability of 30.37% and a draw had a probability of 24.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Zambia win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.23%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.9%) and 2-0 (7.2%). The likeliest Botswana win was 1-2 (7.32%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.41%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Zambia in this match.
