Croatia welcome Slovenia to Stadion Poljud on Tuesday evening as the World Cup 2022 qualifiers continue.
Group H remains tight - heading into the weekend, all six teams were separated by just three points - but wins for Croatia and Russia have seen them open out a small gap at the top.
Match preview
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Holding the tag of finalists at the last World Cup, having lost just under half of their last 20 fixtures represents something of a fall from grace for Zlatko Dalic and his squad.
Their Euro 2020 campaign was not a disaster, but certainly not a success - two second-half goals against Scotland were vital in progressing to the knockout rounds, where they were then sent home after a dramatic 5-3 extra-time loss to Spain.
A draw away at Russia last week was a solid result, though, and the Blazers returned to winning ways on Saturday when they beat a dogged Slovakian side 1-0, again away from home.
Inter Milan midfielder Marcelo Brozovic scored the only goal of the game in the final four minutes to hand Croatia their first win since that game against Scotland.
With 10 points from five games, the Blazers are currently second in the Group H standings, level on points and goal difference with group leaders Russia, and will be hoping that a strong win here - as they finally return to home soil - can see them top the group.
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Slovenia also come into Tuesday's encounter on the back of a win.
Matjaz Kek's side claimed a 1-0 victory at home against a dogged Malta side, FC Lugano midfielder Sandi Lovric's spot kick on the stroke of half time proving enough to secure the three points.
That result moves them up to third in the group and they will be aware that a qualification spot is a possibility if they are able to pull off an unlikely win here.
The Slovenes are certainly on an upward trajectory - after back-to-back losses to Russia and world number 99s Cyprus, they secured a point in a tightly contested draw at home to Slovakia, before adding the three points to their tally on Saturday.
Kek will also be sure to remind his men that they defeated Croatia 1-0, courtesy of another Lovric goal, in the opening qualifier back in March.
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Team News
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Marseille defender Duje Caleta-Car is the only doubt from the Croatia squad, after missing the game against Slovakia due to a slight injury.
Domagoj Vida took his place in the backline and will likely keep it, having helped his team produce a clean sheet.
Andrej Kramaric, Ivan Perisic and Marko Livaja all surprisingly missed out on the starting XI last game - being subbed on for the final half an hour - and at least two will likely be drafted back in for this game.
Following an injury-free game against Malta, Slovenia head coach Kek has a fully fit 25-man squad at his disposal.
New Middlesbrough signing Andraz Sporar was subbed on for the final 20 minutes but missed a penalty during that time, so has not made the best claim to replace 18-year-old Benjamin Sesko up front.
Croatia possible starting lineup:
Livakovic; Juranovic, Lovren, Vida, Sosa; Pasalic, Brozovic, Kovacic; Vlasic, Kramaric, Perisic
Slovenia possible starting lineup:
Oblak; Balkovec, Mevlja, Blazic, Stojanovic; Zajc, Stulac; Mlakar, Lovric, Ilicic; Sesko
We say: Croatia 2-1 Slovenia
Croatia will find themselves up against a resilient Slovenian side who are unbeaten in their last four games, but Dalic's team should be able to make their home advantage count and come away with all three points, despite a valiant fight by the visitors.
Top tip
James Mackenzie
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Croatia win with a probability of 56.29%. A draw had a probability of 25.6% and a win for Slovenia had a probability of 18.08%.
The most likely scoreline for a Croatia win was 1-0 with a probability of 15.6%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.03%) and 2-1 (9.01%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.67%), while for a Slovenia win it was 0-1 (7.57%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 6.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Croatia would win this match.
