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DFB-Pokal | First Round
Aug 17, 2024 at 5pm UK
Volksparkstadion
Dortmund logo

Phonix Lubeck
1 - 4
Dortmund

Jοhnson Iloka (55')
Ntika Bondombe (30'), Berger (47')
FT(HT: 0-3)
Anton (3'), Can (31' pen.), Brandt (45+1'), Duranville (62')
Schlotterbeck (23')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's DFB-Pokal clash between Phonix Lubeck and Borussia Dortmund, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Phonix Lubeck

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Last Game: Vorwarts-Wacker 04 0-4 Phonix Lubeck
Sunday, July 14 at 1pm in Club Friendlies 3
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Borussia Dortmund

All competitions
Last Game: Dortmund 2-0 Aston Villa
Saturday, August 10 at 4pm in Club Friendlies 1

We said: Phonix Lubeck 1-5 Borussia Dortmund

 Although Dortmund are likely to name several less experienced players in their starting XI, their quality should still see them emerge as comfortable victors. It would not be surprising if Sahin's side took an early lead, but Phonix Lubeck will no doubt have moments of threatening play, particularly during set pieces. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Borussia Dortmund win with a probability of 84.39%. A draw had a probability of 9.6% and a win for Phonix Lubeck had a probability of 6%.

The most likely scoreline for a Borussia Dortmund win was 0-3 with a probability of 8.44%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-3 (7.91%) and 0-4 (7.41%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (3.84%), while for a Phonix Lubeck win it was 2-1 (1.8%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 6.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Borussia Dortmund would win this match.

Result
Phonix LubeckDrawBorussia Dortmund
6% (1.255 1.26) 9.6% (1.153 1.15) 84.39% (-2.409 -2.41)
Both teams to score 59.01% (3.458 3.46)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
82.08% (-0.241 -0.24)17.92% (0.24 0.24)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
64.93% (-0.36 -0.36)35.07% (0.358 0.36)
Phonix Lubeck Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
60.83% (3.751 3.75)39.17% (-3.752 -3.75)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
24.11% (3.341 3.34)75.88% (-3.343 -3.34)
Borussia Dortmund Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
97.02% (-0.318 -0.32)2.98% (0.317 0.32)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
86.55% (-1.133 -1.13)13.45% (1.133 1.13)
Score Analysis
    Phonix Lubeck 6%
    Borussia Dortmund 84.39%
    Draw 9.6%
Phonix LubeckDrawBorussia Dortmund
2-1 @ 1.8% (0.319 0.32)
1-0 @ 1.09% (0.127 0.13)
3-2 @ 0.99% (0.23 0.23)
Other @ 2.12%
Total : 6%
1-1 @ 3.84% (0.338 0.34)
2-2 @ 3.16% (0.477 0.48)
0-0 @ 1.17% (0.024 0.02)
3-3 @ 1.16% (0.241 0.24)
Other @ 0.27%
Total : 9.6%
0-3 @ 8.44% (-0.643 -0.64)
1-3 @ 7.91% (0.227 0.23)
0-4 @ 7.41% (-0.821 -0.82)
0-2 @ 7.2% (-0.309 -0.31)
1-4 @ 6.95% (-0.016 -0.02)
1-2 @ 6.75% (0.397 0.4)
0-5 @ 5.21% (-0.761 -0.76)
1-5 @ 4.88% (-0.168 -0.17)
0-1 @ 4.1% (-0.044 -0.04)
2-3 @ 3.71% (0.457 0.46)
2-4 @ 3.25% (0.31 0.31)
0-6 @ 3.05% (-0.558 -0.56)
1-6 @ 2.86% (-0.193 -0.19)
2-5 @ 2.29% (0.152 0.15)
0-7 @ 1.53% (-0.338 -0.34)
1-7 @ 1.43% (-0.146 -0.15)
2-6 @ 1.34% (0.049 0.05)
3-4 @ 1.02% (0.187 0.19)
Other @ 5.08%
Total : 84.39%

How you voted: Phonix Lubeck vs Dortmund

Phonix Lubeck
12.5%
Draw
0.0%
Borussia Dortmund
87.5%
8
rhs 2.0
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