Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a SBV Excelsior win with a probability of 45.37%. A win for Jong AZ had a probability of 31.53% and a draw had a probability of 23.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a SBV Excelsior win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.1%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.17%) and 0-2 (6.33%). The likeliest Jong AZ win was 2-1 (7.42%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.31%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 6.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that SBV Excelsior would win this match.