Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ajax win with a probability of 65.43%. A draw had a probability of 17.8% and a win for Vitesse had a probability of 16.79%.
The most likely scoreline for an Ajax win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.28%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-1 (7.71%) and 2-0 (7.69%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.45%), while for a Vitesse win it was 1-2 (4.49%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Ajax in this match.