UEFA Conference League

Europa Conference League | Playoffs | 2nd Leg

Aug 25, 2022 at 8pm UK

Estádio Cidade de Barcelos

Gil Vicente
1 - 2
AZ

(AZ Alkmaar win 6-1 on aggregate)

Boselli (86')
Medina (27')

FT(HT: 0-0)

Evjen (60'), Reijnders (64')
Beukema (31')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Europa Conference League clash between Gil Vicente and AZ Alkmaar, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

AZ Alkmaar

Last Six:

Last Game: AZ 4-0 Gil Vicente
Thursday, August 18 at 8pm in Europa Conference League

Current League Standings		P	GD	PTS
5	FC Twente	2	4	6
6	AZ Alkmaar	2	3	6
7	Heerenveen	3	4	5

We said: Gil Vicente 2-3 AZ Alkmaar (AZ Alkmaar win 7-2 on aggregate)

Even if they opt to make rotations on Thursday, AZ Alkmaar have shown they have more quality than their playoff opponents, and we see them doing enough to win again on the night with the chance to break on a Gil Vicente side who will go all out for goals. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Gil Vicente win with a probability of 42.01%. A win for AZ Alkmaar had a probability of 32.82% and a draw had a probability of 25.2%.

The most likely scoreline for a Gil Vicente win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.17%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.9%) and 2-0 (6.87%). The likeliest AZ Alkmaar win was 0-1 (7.93%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.88%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 7.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that AZ Alkmaar would win this match.

Result
Gil Vicente	Draw	AZ Alkmaar
42.01% ( 0.11)	25.17% ( -0.08)	32.82% ( -0.03)

Both teams to score 56.37% (

0.28)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

52.88% (

0.37)

47.11% (

-0.37)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

30.65% (

0.34)

69.35% (

-0.34)

Gil Vicente Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

77.64% (

0.21)

22.36% (

-0.22)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

44.14% (

0.32)

55.85% (

-0.32)

AZ Alkmaar Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

72.61% (

0.16)

27.39% (

-0.16)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

37.14% (

0.21)

62.86% (

-0.21)

Score Analysis

Gil Vicente 42.01%

AZ Alkmaar 32.82%

Draw 25.17%

Gil Vicente	Draw	AZ Alkmaar
1-0 @ 9.17% ( -0.08) 2-1 @ 8.9% ( 0.02) 2-0 @ 6.87% ( -0.02) 3-1 @ 4.44% ( 0.04) 3-0 @ 3.43% ( 0.01) 3-2 @ 2.88% ( 0.04) 4-1 @ 1.66% ( 0.02) 4-0 @ 1.28% ( 0.01) 4-2 @ 1.08% ( 0.02) Other @ 2.3% Total : 42.01%	1-1 @ 11.88% ( -0.05) 0-0 @ 6.12% ( -0.1) 2-2 @ 5.76% ( 0.04) 3-3 @ 1.24% ( 0.02) Other @ 0.16% Total : 25.17%	0-1 @ 7.93% ( -0.09) 1-2 @ 7.69% ( 0) 0-2 @ 5.14% ( -0.03) 1-3 @ 3.32% ( 0.02) 2-3 @ 2.49% ( 0.03) 0-3 @ 2.22% ( -0) 1-4 @ 1.08% ( 0.01) Other @ 2.96% Total : 32.82%